How Progress Ends: Technology, Innovation, and the Fate of Nations

 
★入圍2025年《金融時報》與施羅德商業書獎決選名單

　　科技與經濟的進步，真的是必然的趨勢嗎？ 進步，是否終將走到盡頭？牛津大學專研「AI與工作」與「新經濟思維」的學者卡爾・貝內迪克特・弗雷（Carl Benedikt Frey），帶領我們展開一場橫跨千年的全球之旅，探討歷史上那些曾引領技術革命的黃金盛世——例如中國宋代、荷蘭共和國與維多利亞時期的英國——為何最終喪失創新的優勢？近代的日本經歷高速成長後陷入停滯，蘇聯等計畫經濟體在短暫的進步後瓦解，背後又隱藏著什麼共同的歷史規律？
 
　　《進步的終點》以史為鏡，揭示一個發人深省的真相：決定科技與創新能否持續繁榮的關鍵，從來不在技術本身，而在去中心化與國家管控之間的微妙平衡。作者指出，歷史反覆驗證一項結構性的張力——去中心化能激發新技術的誕生，官僚體系則是讓創新得以擴散與規模化的必要條件。唯有在兩者之間取得微妙平衡，國家才能長期維持創新與成長。然而今日，世界上最龐大且最先進的經濟體——無論是美國、中國，或歐洲——都在這場平衡中出現隱憂，預示著全球可能面臨新一波的停滯。想理解人類進步的真正動力何在，並洞察創新科技的未來走向，《進步的終點》是不可錯過的深度之作。(文/博客來編譯)
 
重磅推薦：
 
　　「作者揭示當技術巨變來臨，為何有些國家能持續繁榮，而有些卻步履維艱。隨著AI重塑世界格局，本書為政治領導者提供關鍵啟示——如何推動創新，同時避開讓進步停滯的制度陷阱。」——英國前首相東尼．布萊爾（Tony Blair）
 
　　「這本書氣勢宏大又嚴謹細緻，不僅探討社會進步如何被創造、為何會逆轉，更思考在AI革命的浪潮中，人類該如何引導科技前行。作為當代最具影響力的思想家之一，弗雷以深刻的洞察力寫出一部關乎過去、現在與未來的必讀之作。——微軟AI執行長穆斯塔法．蘇萊曼（Mustafa Suleyman） 

Shortlisted for the Financial Times and Schroders Business Book of the Year Award

How 1,000 years of global history show why technological and economic progress is often followed by stagnation and even collapse

In How Progress Ends, Carl Benedikt Frey challenges the conventional belief that economic and technological progress is inevitable. For most of human history, stagnation was the norm, and even today progress and prosperity in the world’s largest, most advanced economies--the United States and China--have fallen short of expectations. To appreciate why we cannot depend on any AI-fueled great leap forward, Frey offers a remarkable and fascinating journey across the globe, spanning the past 1,000 years, to explain why some societies flourish and others fail in the wake of rapid technological change.

By examining key historical moments--from the rise of the steam engine to the dawn of AI--Frey shows why technological shifts have shaped, and sometimes destabilized, entire civilizations. He explores why some leading technological powers of the past--such as Song China, the Dutch Republic, and Victorian Britain--ultimately lost their innovative edge, why some modern nations such as Japan had periods of rapid growth followed by stagnation, and why planned economies like the Soviet Union collapsed after brief surges of progress. Frey uncovers a recurring tension in history: while decentralization fosters the exploration of new technologies, bureaucracy is crucial for scaling them. When institutions fail to adapt to technological change, stagnation inevitably follows. Only by carefully balancing decentralization and bureaucracy can nations innovate and grow over the long term--findings that have worrying implications for the United States, Europe, China, and other economies today.

Through a rich narrative that weaves together history, economics, and technology, How Progress Ends reveals that managing the future requires us to draw the right lessons from the past.

Carl Benedikt Frey is the Dieter Schwarz Associate Professor of AI and Work at the Oxford Internet Institute and Oxford Martin Citi Fellow at the Oxford Martin School, both at the University of Oxford. He is also a fellow at Mansfield College, the Institute for New Economic Thinking at Oxford, and Lund University’s Department of Economic History. His books include The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation (Princeton).