Public Finance Management

Excited to share my latest piece for the International Institute for Strategic Studies on American state capitalism and critical-mineral diplomacy. Since January 2025, the Trump administration has moved decisively toward a more forceful, state-led approach to securing critical mineral supply chains—accelerating permits, brokering private capital, and deploying public financial institutions as strategic tools. China’s April 2025 export controls and licensing restrictions only reinforced this shift, helping trigger a surge of U.S. public investment into rare earths and other critical inputs. In the article, I argue the U.S. strategy now runs on three tracks—launched in stages but increasingly intertwined: 🏈 “America First” deals that deepen state involvement in domestic projects; 🤝 Bilateral agreements abroad, backed by government finance and public–private partnerships; 🌍 Pax Silica, a coalition-of-capabilities framework linking capital, reserves, processing know-how, and downstream demand across allied jurisdictions. Together, these tracks aim to secure “reliable supply chains and access to critical minerals,” now framed as a national-security priority. The real test is execution—and whether coalition-building can hold when it is paired with tariff threats and other leverage tools that strain transatlantic and wider allied trust. #EconomicSecurity #CriticalMinerals #RareEarths #Geoeconomics #IndustrialPolicy #SupplyChains #StateCapitalism https://lnkd.in/dJfPeKDh

Relatively small amounts of critical minerals underpin trillions of dollars in economic value globally. New IEA analysis highlights growing risks, including export controls, although countries are also taking steps to make supply chains more secure 👉 https://iea.li/4aTpQ33 The geographic concentration of critical mineral supply chains continues to grow, particularly for refining. Rare earths are the exception. The top supplier's share fell from 90% in 2023 to 85% in 2025, showing progress is possible with strong policies. Read more in the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 👉 https://iea.li/4bNpwDh While critical mineral projects are being announced & developed across the globe, we see a structural imbalance in diversification efforts. Investment outside the dominant supplier remains concentrated in mining, while efforts to expand refining & downstream capacity lag behind. In a complex geopolitical environment, critical minerals have moved to the forefront of countries’ energy, economic & national security agendas. This is making a difference: public finance commitments more than quadrupled between 2023 and 2025, reaching $65 billion. New IEA analysis also sees a major opportunity to diversify supplies of strategic minor minerals. The investment needed is much smaller than the potential risks of disruption and can be seen as economic insurance. Since #CriticalMinerals account for a small share of final product prices, the cost of diversification could have a limited impact on consumers. For example, critical minerals account for around a quarter of battery cell costs but only about 3% of the price of an average EV. Diversified supply is not only a matter of investment: it also means tackling gaps in technology, equipment & workforce skills. Our new Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 includes guidance for policymakers on this & more. Read it in full on our site 👉 https://iea.li/4bNpwDh

Europe stands at a pivotal moment: the long-overdue reconstruction of its #defense industrial base is no longer optional—it’s imperative. Years of underinvestment, fragmentation, and reliance on external suppliers have eroded our capacity to equip and sustain our armed forces. The political momentum for rearmament is real—but if #Europe wants true strategic autonomy, it must act with purpose, not just scale. 🏛️ 1. Secure Sustainable Defense Funding Defense spending across the EU has lagged for decades. At 2.2% of GDP, Europe simply isn’t investing enough to match the scale—or complexity—of modern defense needs. Temporary solutions like tapping into the ESM or NGEU can help, but long-term stability requires a well-capitalized European Defense Fund. Strategic autonomy begins with financial sovereignty. 🛡️ 2. Buy European First, Align Industrial Policy Europe can no longer afford inefficiencies: 17 different tanks, 20+ fighter jet models, and procurement still driven by national rather than collective interest. We need a “Buy European” doctrine that mirrors the strategic coherence of South Korea or the US F-35 program. Cross-border procurement and industrial integration—particularly with UK firms now looped into joint EU programs—must become the rule, not the exception. 🏭 3. Scale Up and Rebuild the Supply Chain Europe’s defense ecosystem—2,500 firms versus 60,000 in the US—is ill-prepared for sustained ramp-up. Achieving meaningful scale will take 3–5 years and requires industry-government co-planning. Strategic partnerships, regional stockpiling, SME inclusion, and cutting red tape are critical. Sovereignty must not mean domestic hoarding or champion favoritism. 🚀 4. Build a Dual-Use Tech Powerhouse With just €9.5bn in defense R&D (vs $140bn in the US), Europe must radically rethink its innovation model. Dual-use innovation hubs, co-funded AI and quantum programs, and cross-border IP-sharing can help close the gap. Our goal: not to copy the US, Israel, or South Korea—but to become a competitive peer. 🧭 5. Forge Unified Governance Europe’s greatest weakness is fragmentation: divergent export rules, overlapping procurement standards, and a lack of binding mechanisms dilute impact. We need a “unifying command”—stronger institutions, faster decision-making, and regulatory convergence across member states. A stronger Europe starts with shared rules and a common purpose. 📈 The time to rearm Europe is now—but not with yesterday’s playbook. This is not just about spending more; it’s about spending wisely, building industrial resilience, and thinking long-term. The global defense landscape is shifting—and Europe must move from reactive to strategic. #StrategicAutonomy #Innovation #SupplyChains #Security #EUeconomy #Macroeconomics #R&D #Geopolitics #DualUseTech #Ludonomics #AllianzTrade #Allianz

Europe stands at a crossroads, facing pressure from geopolitical flashpoints and increasing protectionism, coupled with structural growth weaknesses. As we look ahead to 2025, Europe's top priority must be to strengthen its sovereignty in a shifting world order.   In my latest contribution to the World Economic Forum, I outlined four critical areas where Europe must take decisive action to maintain its place in the geo-economic showdown.    1️⃣ Europe must actively and pragmatically pursue free trade agreements. The recent breakthrough in the Mercosur deal presents a significant growth stimulus for the European economy and sends a strong message in favor of free, rules-based trade. What matters now is rapid implementation. 2️⃣ Europe needs to launch a strategic investment offensive for targeted funding of key technologies such as AI and quantum computing. Infrastructure investments for digital and green transformations are equally vital. 3️⃣ To effectively mobilize private capital, Europe must prioritize advancing the Capital Markets Union, enabling companies to access a wider array of European capital sources and enhancing economic sovereignty in an increasingly fragmented global economy. 4️⃣ Finally, we must simplify the regulatory landscape to facilitate faster project execution. This could involve implementing a “one in, two out” rule for new legislation and limiting the reappointment of retiring civil servants to one-third within the EU.   The path forward is clear: Europe's future geopolitical relevance hinges on a strong economy, necessitating massive investments and deregulation. It's time for Europe to step out of its comfort zone and prioritize its own interests to forge a stronger, more independent continent.   You can read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/eRC7VK6K   #WEF25 #Europe #RolandBerger

Today’s announcement from MP Materials may be the strongest signal yet that the answer is: No. In a landmark move, MP Materials and the U.S. Department of Defense have agreed to a 10-year price floor of $110/kg for NdPr—a critical magnet rare earth—and significant government co-investment to expand U.S. downstream processing capabilities. This is not just industrial policy; it’s strategic economic security. For years, China has played a dominant role in the refining and downstream processing of rare earths and other critical minerals. These are small, niche commodity markets—easily destabilized by oversupply and pricing volatility. The risk? Western producers cannot scale or sustain operations without confidence in long-term price stability. This partnership marks a turning point: It de-risks long-term capital investment in domestic processing It aligns public and private interests in securing resilient supply chains And it sets a precedent for how the U.S. and its allies can compete in markets where pure price competition is not enough Governments don’t need to pick winners—but they do need to set the rules that allow strategic sectors to win. This is a model to watch. And, I believe, one to replicate across other critical minerals and across the Atlantic. https://lnkd.in/gyD99WaA #CriticalMinerals #RareEarths #MPMaterials #SupplyChainSecurity #PriceFloors #PublicPrivatePartnership #IndustrialPolicy #Geopolitics #ResilientSupplyChains #NdPr #MagnetMetals #ElementalUSA

There was a time when traders focused mainly on the Federal Reserve. Now, many are watching the White House just as closely. In recent months, the Trump administration has started taking direct ownership stakes in several US-listed companies. The stated goal is to strengthen supply chains in industries considered strategically important, such as semiconductors, defense, and critical minerals. This approach represents a major shift in US economic policy. Previous administrations, especially Republican ones, avoided direct government participation in corporate ownership. The companies involved so far include Intel, MP Materials, Lithium Americas, and Trilogy Metals. Each time a new investment was announced, the company’s share price rose sharply as investors anticipated future government support and additional funding. For example, MP Materials’ shares increased by around 95 percent after the Pentagon acquired a 15 percent stake. As a result, traders and analysts are now trying to anticipate which firms might be next. Some are using artificial intelligence to analyse government documents and policy statements to identify potential targets. Supporters argue that these investments will help rebuild US industrial capacity and reduce dependence on China for key materials. Critics see it as a form of state capitalism that risks distorting markets, creating inefficiencies, and politicising corporate performance. For now, investors are treating government involvement as a bullish signal, but the long-term effects are uncertain. The key question is whether this experiment in government ownership strengthens national resilience or blurs the line between public policy and private enterprise.

Is it possible that 80% of health aid to Africa could be eliminated while maintaining the same treatment coverage? Sounds unbelievable, but that's what Africa CDC's Dr. Jean Kaseya just explained to me – and he says South Africa is already showing it works. Here's what I learned in our wide-ranging conversation on how sudden aid cuts are forcing a hard look at development effectiveness – including at Africa CDC itself, which is cutting 20% of its staff: Efficiency isn't about doing more with less – it's about doing things differently. South Africa didn't just trim costs after losing $400 million in PEPFAR funding. They’ve been redesigning their entire HIV response around primary healthcare and, Kaseya says, maintained full coverage with 80% less external support. We're building around governments, not with them. Kaseya shared how many Ministers of Health can only track 30% of health funding in their own countries because donor systems bypass national planning entirely. He says your project may be succeeding while undermining the very institutions it claims to strengthen. Our procurement defaults may be creating the dependency we say we want to end. WHO-qualified HIV drugs made in Uganda cost 70% less than imports, yet aid-funded programs routinely source externally. Kaseya asks us – are we choosing dependency over local solutions? Bottom line: The development sector's effectiveness crisis isn't just about funding levels – it's about operational design. As Dr. Kaseya argues, Africa isn't waiting for donors to return: countries are already innovating with health taxes that generate billions and continental procurement systems that can deliver more with less. What’s your take? #Development #GlobalHealth

£7.4 billion a year flowing to small businesses by 2028. That commitment just went from aspiration to accountability. The Cabinet Office has published department by department spending targets for SME procurement. This is the first time individual departments have been required to commit to specific numbers and publish annual progress reports. The Department for Science, Innovation and Technology has the highest proportion of targeted direct SME spend of any government department at 40 percent over the next three years. Nearly half of all departments have a target above 20 percent. Departments have signed off on the targets and will be required to publish yearly progress updates, as well as robust action plans on how they will improve if the targets are not met. The decline in direct SME spend since 2022 shows why targets with teeth are different from targets with good intentions. Publishing commitments creates accountability that internal ambitions do not. When departments must explain publicly why they missed a target, the conversations about procurement practices change. Cabinet Office minister Chris Ward said the targets will help ensure more government contracts go to SMEs, keeping more money, jobs, and opportunities in local communities. For specialist firms working across government programmes, this signals a structural shift in how procurement will be evaluated. Departments that previously defaulted to large incumbents because the procurement process favoured scale will face pressure to demonstrate they genuinely considered smaller, more capable alternatives. The firms that will benefit most are not the ones waiting to be discovered. They are the ones building the relationships, frameworks, and track records that make them the obvious choice when departments need to demonstrate SME spend. The Federation of Small Businesses noted that understanding exactly how much central government spends directly with small businesses is essential for holding departments to account. Adding that the decline in direct SME spend since 2022 shows exactly why these targets matter. Is your organisation positioned to compete for government work as these targets create genuine pressure to spend differently?

All Above Board: Great Governance for the Government Sector (second edition) by Julie Garland McLellan, is a comprehensive guide focused on corporate governance specifically within government-owned organizations. It covers various aspects of governance and how directors can effectively manage these organizations while balancing public policy, financial objectives, and social responsibilities. Key Themes in the book: - Corporate Governance Definition: Governance in the government sector refers to how organizations are directed and managed, including setting objectives, monitoring risks, and optimizing performance. There's an emphasis on balancing commercial goals with broader public policy objectives. - Differences Between Private and Government Boards: Government-owned entities often have a single shareholder (the government) and their goals go beyond financial returns, focusing on social and policy outcomes. Boards in this sector must navigate political and public interests, requiring a balance between profit motives and community responsibilities. - Director's Roles and Responsibilities: The book emphasizes the importance of understanding legal frameworks and regulations specific to the public sector, along with fiduciary duties. Directors are accountable to their government shareholder and must ensure that their organizations meet public expectations while minimizing risks. - Public Policy and Planning: A significant part of the book explores how government boards align their strategies with public policy goals, manage stakeholder expectations, and handle financial planning in a highly regulated environment. - Risk Management: The risks in the public sector are often higher due to regulatory complexities and public scrutiny. The book provides examples of government-owned organizations that have faced challenges and offers strategies for managing these risks effectively. - Ethics and Transparency: Ethical behavior, transparency, and accountability are critical in maintaining public trust. The book offers guidance on promoting responsible decision-making and fostering a culture of openness on government boards. Case Studies: The book includes practical case studies, such as the management of the New South Wales Grain Board and the challenges of providing services in monopoly situations (e.g., electricity supply), demonstrating how directors can navigate complex governance issues. This guide is tailored for both aspiring and current directors of government-sector boards, helping them to understand the specific challenges of the public sector and offering insights into effective governance practices.

Basic governance isn’t optional — it’s the frontline defence against corruption. When a national budget starts to smell, it’s usually because someone doesn’t want the public to see what’s really going on. The 2025 PNG Budget is exactly that scenario. Instead of investment in people, essential services, or genuine nation-building, we’re watching billions of kina funnelled into large contracts and programs with almost zero transparency. Prioritising opaque mega-projects over basic accountability is not just bad governance — it’s dangerous. Even the most elementary beneficial ownership regime would expose how many of the companies benefiting from Connect PNG and other major contracts trace straight back to MPs and political associates. That’s not speculation — it’s what every anti-corruption and financial governance system in the world is designed to prevent. Opposition MP James Nomane has raised the exact concerns any responsible government should already be addressing. His call for transparency is not political — it’s democratic. A K28.4 billion budget, and only K1.5 billion (5.2%) is visible at district level through DSIP. The rest? Untraceable to the people who actually rely on services. That is the definition of inequity. Nomane is right: • Citizens deserve to know where the money went. • They deserve to know which companies were paid, for what work, and in which districts. • They deserve access to the IFMS Vendors Payment List, MYEFO, and FBO that actually disclose recipients, not just broad allocations. And importantly, the Public Finance Management Act 2022 (s.3(2)) already requires quarterly reporting. Transparency is not a favour — it’s the law. If K1.6 billion went to Connect PNG, then show the public the contracts. Show the contractors. Show the beneficial owners. Show the work delivered. If there’s nothing to hide, then nothing should be hidden. Good governance is simple: • Open books. • Open contracts. • Open reporting. • Open accountability. PNG will never break the cycle of corruption and inequality while billions disappear into black boxes controlled by ministers, departments and political networks. Integrity isn’t a slogan — it’s transparency in action. Read more: (PNGfacts article) https://lnkd.in/gt8whakC