Halftime Report
🌐 What are the competing forces that could define the global economy and markets in the second half of 2026?
🤝 Despite the turbulent macro backdrop, dealmaking enjoyed a blockbuster first half. Will this continue?
📈 Will the U.S. economy continue expanding over the coming months?
🔬 What’s driving momentum in healthcare M&A and capital markets?
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Mid-year market outlook: The tug of war continues
The first half of 2026 was defined by elevated macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. However, the global expansion is on solid footing due to improving business sentiment and a resilient consumer.
“We see three core themes shaping the second half of 2026. First, markets will continue to navigate the tension between the ongoing energy supply shock and a resilient growth backdrop, supported by improved labor markets. Second, the AI upstream theme will remain a key pillar of growth as the capex cycle broadens. And third, geopolitical fragmentation will persist as a structural source of uncertainty across macro and markets,” said Hussein Malik, head of Global Research at J.P. Morgan. “Against this backdrop, we see a broad realignment of supply chains, and of trade and capital flows, as security and resilience considerations increasingly take precedence over cost in global investment decisions.”
J.P. Morgan Global Research also expects inflation to be sticky, resulting in uneven and gradual hikes from developed market (DM) central banks. However, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely be on hold for the rest of the year.
Global M&A mid-year outlook: Remarkable activity amid complexity
The drive for growth and scale is fueling record-high dealmaking, even as national security and regulatory scrutiny redefine how transactions are structured and cleared. Meanwhile, shareholder activists are pushing for greater clarity and capital discipline.
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US economic growth is expected to hold steady for the rest of 2026
This forecast is underpinned by three key assumptions: consumer spending stays resilient, AI capex remains robust and the conflict in the Middle East moves toward resolution.
Healthcare is ripe for M&A deals and cross-border partnerships
In spite of macro uncertainty, dealmaking in healthcare remains active, with capital following differentiated innovation, scalable platforms, resilient business models — and, of course, AI.
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Uncertainty doesn’t necessarily stop deal-making—it changes where conviction is strongest. In the second half of 2026, the winners may be the sectors where strategic value remains clear despite a more selective capital environment.
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The next phase of growth will likely be defined by who can turn disruption into long-term capability. 👏
Very informative news !