US midterm elections are approaching, and the number of structurally competitive House seats has never been this low. Eurasia Group's latest Top Calls report finds just 33 seats are considered competitive, and only 15 are true toss-ups. That means that the next House will be harder to govern, whoever wins it. States are moving toward single-party House delegations, so primaries — not general elections — decide most seats, pulling both parties to more extremes. Blue-state Republicans and red-state Democrats are disappearing, and with them the room to compromise on significant pieces of legislation. Redistricting is not the biggest driver here. Republicans won phase one, but Democratic counter-maps should offset most GOP gains by 2027. This shift is more structural and will have long-lasting effects on hardening partisanship and increasing polarization.
Wow! Here’s to hoping Democrats and Republicans will be able to put the gerrymandering genie back in the bottle after this midterm cycle. Unlikely though.
What impact would legislative term limits be expected to have on the above graph?