The Lightsmith Group

Three #Adaptation and #Resilience ideas from #LCAW struck me as surprising and insightful for potential A&R investors: 🔍  Insurance Availability, Not Premium Level, is a Better Risk Signal An insurance expert remarked that many investors (incorrectly) think that the level of insurance premiums is a proxy for asset risk: higher premiums signal higher risk. The expert cautioned that premium levels reflect both underlying asset risk and insurance market supply-demand conditions. A better risk signal is to focus on insurance availability. Similarly, a credit rating focuses specifically on the risk of a borrower, while the nominal interest rate a borrower pays reflects both its risk and overall interest rate levels. Perhaps the equivalent of an insurance “credit rating” could reflect a specific asset’s risk better than its nominal premium. 📍 Granularity of Time is as Important as Granularity of Place Many investors interested in A&R have called for downscaling climate risk analysis from global models to individual assets, asking for more “granular” data from a spatial perspective. Just as critical to make good A&R investments is to identify specifically when, and over what period, climate risk and impact will occur. Lightsmith's focus is on identifying the "Near Horizon" where a shift from reactive ex post disaster recovery spending to proactive ex ante resilience technology investment is occurring and can be captured within a relevant investment period, such as three to five years for private equity. Effective A&R investment requires focusing on granularity of both space and time.   🌱 The Mustard Seed Perspective: Small Can Get Very Big, Non-Linearly Some investors have said A&R investment feels early and small. Yet demand can scale rapidly and non-linearly. Southern California Edison's wildfire management plan totaled $582 million in 2018. It is now $6.2 billion for 2026–2028, more than 10x in less than a decade. Billions get to trillions after millions get to billions. Read my full thoughts on our website: https://lnkd.in/gUvfVNvC #AdaptationInvestment #LCAW #ResilienceTech #ClimateResilience

The Secret to Adaptation and Resilience (A&R) Investment: Finding the Near Horizon Wayne Gretzky once said, "I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." In adaptation and resilience (A&R) investment, The Great One is right, though Gretzky might have added “…in the next three to five years.” The hard-won secret to A&R investment is finding the "Near Horizon" where resilience technology and solutions are investible now. Three comments: 1. Unavoidable, Sizeable…and Unevenly Distributed GIC, Bain & Company, Temasek, Boston Consulting Group (BCG), and McKinsey & Company agree: A&R will grow to trillions by 2030. The question is not if – it’s where and when. As William Gibson wrote, “The future is already here – it’s just not evenly distributed.” 2. Find the “Near Horizon”  The “Near Horizon” is where a sector has shifted from reactive, ex post, disaster recovery spending to proactive, ex ante investment in resilience technology. That shift drives growth beyond business as usual. A Near Horizon Example: Southern California Edison: $582M in wildfire spending in 2018. $6.2B committed for 2026 to 2028, much of it in wildfire prevention technology. US water utilities? 60% of managers act only when something is about to break. Still a bet on the come. 3. Pragmatic & Productive The Lightsmith Group identified 20+ subsectors with A&R technologies and solutions, totaling $170B in 2017 and growing to $480B by 2024, a roughly 20% CAGR, and invested across seven sectors over a decade. With that experience, Lightsmith’s two highest conviction Near Horizon sectors are (i) energy & infrastructure resilience and (ii) supply chain resilience.  Investments generate calculable ROI and go beyond loss avoidance to competitive advantage. Three recommendations: 1.        Duration, duration, duration: “Near Horizon” investments capture extra growth within the investment period: three to five years for private markets. Match observed growth to hold period. 2.        Details, details, details: The Near Horizon is in specific sectors in specific geographies in specific time frames. Wildfire in California today is followed by wildfire in Europe tomorrow. 3.        Review Lessons Learned: Seek teams with hard-won lessons from first-wave A&R investments who understand where demand is going. Gretzky seized the single season goal-scoring record in 1981-1982 and won four Stanley Cups from 1984 to 1988. Experience teaches you where the puck will be. Where do you see the Near Horizon? #AdaptationInvestment #Resiliencetechnow #Unavoidableopportunity

Today's #LCAW Thought: The "Inevitable" Yet Underinvested Adaptation & Resilience (A&R) Investment Opportunity Southern California Edison committed $6.2 billion to wildfire mitigation for 2026–2028. In 2018, they spent $582 million. That's not just a climate story. That's an investment signal. Adaptation & Resilience (A&R) is the “inevitable” yet underinvested opportunity. Three reasons — and three recommendations. 1. Immediate & Inevitable The warming trajectory to 2030-2040 is essentially locked in. Growth in demand for A&R is arguably more certain than the direction of interest rates, inflation, tariffs, or AI. The question isn't if, it's how fast. 2. Pragmatic & Practical GIC and Bain & Company call A&R an "inevitable investment opportunity" and agree with Temasek, Boston Consulting Group (BCG), and McKinsey & Company that it will grow to trillions of dollars across sectors by 2030. Proof points exist: The Lightsmith Group's CRAFT fund (launched 2019) and 65 commercially viable A&R solutions identified by Centre for Impact Investing and Practices (CIIP) across Asia in 2026. 3. Underinvested & Underestimated Less than 4% of climate investment is in A&R, of which 2% is private investment. Climate Policy Initiative The best A&R tech doesn't just avoid losses, it creates competitive advantage. Supply chains hardened against climate risk at the same time as tariffs, conflict, and geopolitical shock. Infrastructure built to handle AI deployment in a world of escalating climate stress. Tive, Parsyl, AiDASH, The Cadmus Group This is resilience as offense, not defense. Three recommendations: 🔹 ROI-first resilience investors — Partner with investors pursuing commercially-scaled, return-calculable A&R investments. There are good and bad A&R investments and incremental vs. systemic ones. Find them. 🔹 Follow the physics, not the politics — Robust A&R demand is driven by physics and time, calculable in finance: engineers, operators, and asset owners, not dependent on climate politics. Verify that A&R demand compounds regardless of who's in office. 🔹 Seek out the veterans — Capitalize on hard-won lessons from first-wave A&R deployment. Seek teams who've put capital to work and see where demand is heading next. "[S]ome changes are now unavoidable and/or irreversible." (IPCC) Yet A&R investment still remains less than 5% of climate investment. Are you tracking A&R as a distinct investment strategy yet? #AdaptationInvestment #Resiliencetech now #Unavoidableopportunity 

Thoughts from #LCAW: #AdaptationInvestment is the 2026 Climate Policy Imperative: Three reasons it's no longer optional — and three calls to action. 1. Urgent & Unavoidable Extreme weather caused $260B in damages and 17,000+ deaths in 2025. Near-term warming trajectory is essentially locked in. The demand for adaptation is arguably more certain than interest rates, inflation, or AI. 2. Critical to Climate Action Adaptation is an equal priority under the Paris Agreement — yet it's less than 4% of total climate finance. Without it, wildfires destroy electricity networks and droughts undermine low-carbon agriculture. Mitigation fails without adaptation. 3. Pragmatic & Practical $1 of adaptation investment generates $8.60 in protected asset value (IFC - International Finance Corporation). Temasek, GIC, Boston Consulting Group (BCG), Bain & Company, and McKinsey & Company call it an "inevitable investment opportunity" worth trillions by 2030. Proof points exist: The Lightsmith Group's CRAFT fund (2019) and 65 commercially viable solutions identified by Centre for Impact Investing and Practices (CIIP) in Asia (2026). Three recommendations: 🔹 Coalition of the Pragmatic — Move beyond "willing" to "doing." Back concrete, regionally specific, financially measurable investments. 🔹 Blended Finance as Booster Rocket — Use blended finance to scale, not just launch. Apply lessons from #CRAFT to platform strategies like #SCALE and FAST-P to Adaptation. 🔹 Meet the Moment — Private investors are turning to #Adaptation and #Resilience for the first time. Climate stakeholders need to match that interest with action now. #AdaptationInvestment is where Urgency meets Pragmatism. Have you designed your #adaptationinvestment strategy yet? The Lightsmith Group, #unavoidableopportunity #resiliencetech now. Emily Chew, De Rui Wong, Kyung-Ah Park, Franziska Zimmermann, Abigail E. Ng, Bey An Lim, Munib Madni, CFA, Greg Fischer, Tariq Nanji, Veronica Chau, Mekala Krishnan, Alexis Trittipo

#Adaptation at Ecosperity #Singapore: #Urgent #Pragmatic #Actionable #Urgent. Asia is warming 2X the global rate. Centre for Impact Investing and Practices (CIIP) puts annual adaptation funding need at $200 billion across Asia vs. $19 billion currently. Singapore's Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu declared 2026 the "Year of Adaptation." #Pragmatic. Clear economic and financial case. >80% of adaptation spending Southeast Asia needs has benefit-to-cost ratio > 3:1. Centre for Impact Investing and Practices (CIIP) identifies over 250 investable A&R solutions across nine sectors. <11% is privately financed today: A&R is investible; the market is still catching up to opportunity. #Actionable. FAST-P has mobilized $800 million for Asia's energy transition. The question being asked at Ecosperity: "Is it time for a FAST-P equivalent for adaptation?" Bloomberg reports that private supply chain resilience investment is already scaling, including through The Lightsmith Group portfolio companies Parsyl and Tive. More to come from Global Environment Facility #GeneralAssembly and #LCAW London Climate Action Week in June. https://lnkd.in/gK29XYev #unavoidableopportunity #resiliencetech now. Grace Fu, Abigail E. Ng, Munib Madni, CFA, Joyce Lee, Bey An Lim, Kyung-Ah Park, Frederick Teo, Chizuru Aoki, Jason Spensley, Jay Koh, Sanjay Wagle, Elodie Laugel, Timothée Jaulin, Tara Guelig

#unavoidableopportunity #resiliencetech now. “The impacts of extreme weather events fueled by global warming, including heatwaves, storms, floods and wildfires, are mounting for business globally. Companies transporting pharmaceuticals, food and high-value technology goods such as microchips are particularly vulnerable to temperature, humidity and delays.” Tive, Parsyl, The Lightsmith Group, Krenar Komoni, Ben Hubbard

The Lightsmith Group is honored to be profiled in Centre for Impact Investing and Practices (CIIP)'s #adaptation and #resilience investment case studies: "The Lightsmith Group, founded in 2017, pioneered the adaptation and resilience (A&R) investment space by launching the first dedicated growth equity fund focused on adaptation and resilience, helping to define what experts recognize as an “inevitable” or “unavoidable”investment opportunity likely to exceed $1 trillion by 2030." https://lnkd.in/eSjysZ6A

Super excited for #ecosperity! #Adaptation and #Resilience now! Excited to discuss #investment in #energyresilience , #infraresilience, and #supplychainresilience. Thanks to Temasek, Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), GIC, and the Singapore ecosystem for leadership in this #YearofAdaptation! The Lightsmith Group’s Jay Koh and Sanjay Wagle will be in Singapore and excited to meet! Kyung-Ah Park , Abigail E. Ng , Emily Chew

#unavoidableopportunity #resiliencetech now. Top Three reflections: #AI, #Investors, #Demand for A&R from the #GARISummit in NYC: 1. #AI for #adaptation and #resilience (A&R) is here: The Cadmus Group, Parsyl, and Floodbase are accelerating use of #AI to secure #energyresilience and #supplychainresilience today. 2. Investor interest in #adaptation and #resilience is scaling: GIC's Emily Chew discussed the trillion-dollar A&R "Inevitable Investment Opportunity" investors now recognize. 3. Climate Elasticity of Demand: Inevitably increasing physical risks and impacts are fundamentally increasing demand for A&R technologies and solutions. Read more at The Lightsmith Group's site below. Thanks to Ian Kline, Ted Calligeros, Omar Elmasry, Emily Chew; Global Adaptation & Resilience Investment Working Group (GARI), Sara Shoff, Lori Collins https://lnkd.in/gEyukz_J