Eurasia Group

US officials reportedly believe Tehran directed a series of recent cyberattacks on US water systems. While no major damage was done, these attacks exposed a troubling vulnerability: A conflict thousands of miles away can reach Americans through something as basic as the water supply. Our expert Nick Kraft says these attacks are “a low-effort way to make a point and get attention, even if the actual damage is minor.” GZERO Media #TopRisks2026 https://lnkd.in/eRtKEgH2

US midterm elections are approaching, and the number of structurally competitive House seats has never been this low. Eurasia Group's latest Top Calls report finds just 33 seats are considered competitive, and only 15 are true toss-ups. That means that the next House will be harder to govern, whoever wins it. States are moving toward single-party House delegations, so primaries — not general elections — decide most seats, pulling both parties to more extremes. Blue-state Republicans and red-state Democrats are disappearing, and with them the room to compromise on significant pieces of legislation. Redistricting is not the biggest driver here. Republicans won phase one, but Democratic counter-maps should offset most GOP gains by 2027. This shift is more structural and will have long-lasting effects on hardening partisanship and increasing polarization. 

President Trump and President Xi are set to meet again in September, but that doesn’t mean the US and China are entering into a new era of cooperation.   Ian Bremmer explains how the race for AI dominance will complicate relations:   #QuickTake GZERO Media

Asia has become the center of gravity for geopolitical competition, economic growth, technological innovation, and global supply chains. Decisions made across the region will shape the future of the international economy.   Meanwhile, leaders are navigating an increasingly leaderless world, where shifting alliances, strategic competition, and rapid technological change are creating new risks—and opportunities—for businesses and governments alike.   On 10 September 2026, our inaugural #GZEROSummit Asia will bring together heads of state, ministers, CEOs, investors, and Eurasia Group experts in Singapore to discuss the geopolitical and economic forces transforming the region and their implications for global leaders.   Learn more: https://lnkd.in/e4cWy5gQ   For attendance inquiries, please contact rsvp@eurasiagroup.net. Attendance is thoughtfully curated to foster meaningful dialogue and high-impact engagement among leaders from across the region and beyond.

For decades, large-scale desalination in the Gulf was framed as a triumph of engineering over geography. Amid the Iran war, it is now it is recognized as both indispensable and dangerously exposed. Our expert Franck Gbaguidi explains that the lesson for policymakers is that overreliance on a single, centralized water source—especially mega-desalination in a more contested environment—is untenable. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) https://lnkd.in/eMhazxxe

How is AI shaping the future of international innovation and cultural alignment? Our experts Scott Bade and Philipe Moura joined Nicholas Beaudoin (Caltech Center for Technology and Management Education (Caltech CTME)) to discuss how geopolitics of AI are playing out across the Americas, including the major shift in Silicon Valley's relationship with Washington, US chip strategy, Latin America's renewable energy advantage, data center buildouts, and why companies—not governments—will likely lead on AI governance. https://lnkd.in/eXzSSnQ9

The time has come to bid our Eurasia Group and GZERO Media summer interns farewell.   This year's cohort participated in ping-pong tournaments, attended World Cup watch parties, and, of course, engaged in the time-honored tradition of presenting their group research presentations to the firm.   Every summer, we learn as much from them as they do from us. The breadth and depth of our network are among Eurasia Group's best assets, and we are fortunate to call these impressive members of the next generation part of ours.

If the Americans don't want to escalate the war with Iran, at what point will President Trump be willing to accept a deal that looks like a loss?   Ian Bremmer explains Tehran’s single biggest source of leverage in his latest #QuickTake for GZERO Media: