Sibylla Bostoniensis

Canonical link: https://siderea.dreamwidth.org/1885137.html


Content Advisory: US government classified and controlled unclassified info leaked to news outlets, within.

[Previously: The Essequibo (Buddy-ta-na-na, We Are Somebody, Oh): Part 1]

Now, when looking at these strikes being carried out in the Caribbean, shockingly, I think there's not been a ton of coverage on this. CNN, for one, their Pentagon reporters, have been some of the only ones consistently covering what's happening in Venezuela. CNN and the New York Times right now, I would say, are the two that are kind of all over this and have been for a while. I don't know why it's getting so little coverage elsewhere, but it is. So, normally I would like to look at these, uh, these reports and source them from multiple different outlets and we just don't have that because there's so limited coverage around US military operations in SOUTHCOM right now.

— Preston Stewart [PrestonStewart on YT], 2025 Oct 15, "American Bombers Send A Message To Venezuela"

[...] I know that the people of the United States are attentive observers and the people of the United States are very aware of what is being attempted against Venezuela is armed aggression to impose regime change.

— Nicolás Maduro, 2025 Oct 3, via Times of India via AP via VTV, "Venezuela Deploys Army & Tanks After Another Deadly U.S Attack, Fighter Jet action"

I am still desperately trying to pull together Part 2 of this series, but in the meanwhile, more things keep happening. I keep checking in with my focus group, aka, Mr. Bostoniensis, about what he is seeing in the news, because my own algorithms are, uh, rather peculiarly trained at this point, and the answer seems "rock all", so I thought I'd post a news round-up of some of the developments over the last couple of weeks. (Holy crap it's been two weeks.)

October 2nd

October 2nd: It comes out that the Trump administration has literalized the "War on Drugs".

[CW: 'controlled but unclassified']

2025 Oct 2: NY Times: "Trump ‘Determined’ the U.S. Is Now in a War With Drug Cartels, Congress Is Told" [Paywall Defeater] by Charlie Savage and Eric Schmitt, Subtitle: "A notice calls the people the U.S. military recently killed on suspicion of drug smuggling in the Caribbean Sea “unlawful combatants.”"

President Trump has decided that the United States is engaged in a formal “armed conflict” with drug cartels his team has labeled terrorist organizations and that suspected smugglers for such groups are “unlawful combatants,” the administration said in a confidential notice to Congress this week.

The notice was sent to several congressional committees and obtained by The New York Times. It adds new detail to the administration’s thinly articulated legal rationale for why three U.S. military strikes the president ordered on boats in the Caribbean Sea last month, killing all 17 people aboard them, should be seen as lawful rather than murder.

[...]

The notice to Congress, which was deemed controlled but unclassified information, cites a statute requiring reports to lawmakers about hostilities involving U.S. armed forces. It repeats the administration’s earlier arguments but also goes further with new claims, including portraying the U.S. military’s attacks on boats to be part of a sustained, active conflict rather than isolated acts of claimed self-defense.

Specifically, it says that Mr. Trump has “determined” that cartels engaged in smuggling drugs are “nonstate armed groups” whose actions “constitute an armed attack against the United States.” And it cites a term from international law — a “noninternational armed conflict” — that refers to a war with a nonstate actor.

“Based upon the cumulative effects of these hostile acts against the citizens and interests of the United States and friendly foreign nations, the president determined that the United States is in a noninternational armed conflict with these designated terrorist organizations,” the notice said.

Also October 2nd: US terminates diplomatic relations with Venezuela

2025 Oct 6: NYT: "Trump Calls Off Diplomatic Outreach to Venezuela" [Paywall defeater] by Julian E. Barnes, Tyler Pager and Maria Abi-Habib.

President Trump has called off efforts to reach a diplomatic agreement with Venezuela, according to U.S. officials, paving the way for a potential military escalation against drug traffickers or the government of Nicolás Maduro.

Richard Grenell, a special presidential envoy and interim executive director of the Kennedy Center, had been leading negotiations with Mr. Maduro and other top Venezuelan officials. But during a meeting with senior military leaders on Thursday [Oct 2], Mr. Trump called Mr. Grenell and instructed him that all diplomatic outreach, including his talks with Mr. Maduro, was to stop, the officials said on Monday [Oct 6].

October 3rd

October 3rd: Fourth US strike on a boat in Venezuelan waters is announced by Trump admin

2025 Oct 3: independent.co.uk [news]: "Hegseth reveals fourth airstrike on ‘narco’ boat off Venezuela after Trump declares ‘armed conflict’ with traffickers" by Alex Woodward, Subtitle: "Trump ordered another ‘lethal’ strike after telling Congress that US is formally engaged in ‘armed conflict’ with cartels"

U.S. military assets killed four people and destroyed another boat in a fourth strike against alleged drug traffickers, according to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Under Donald Trump’s orders, Hegseth directed “a lethal, kinetic strike on a narco-trafficking vessel affiliated with Designated Terrorist Organizations” off the coast of Venezuela on Friday morning, according to Hegseth.

October 6th

October 6th: Venezuela announces it foiled a false-flag plot against the US Embassy in Venezuela

2025 Oct 6: AsambleaNacional.gob.ve [National Assembly, i.e. federal legislature, of the government of Venezuela, official site]: "Diputado Jorge Rodríguez advierte sobre planes terroristas contra Embajada" ["Deputy Jorge Rodriguez warns of terrorist plans against U.S. Embassy USA in Venezuela"]:

[Original] El presidente de la Asamblea Nacional (AN), y jefe del Diálogo por la Paz de Venezuela, diputado Jorge Rodríguez; informó en la noche de este domingo que el Gobierno de Donald Trump ha sido advertido, por tres vías, de una grave amenaza contra la Embajada de Estados Unidos en Venezuela. A través de sus cuentas en redes digitales, Rodríguez informó que mediante una operación, preparada por sectores extremistas de la derecha local, se intenta atacar a la sede diplomática con explosivos letales. "En mi condición de jefe de diálogo y paz de Venezuela, quiero anunciar que por tres vías distintas hemos advertido al gobierno de EEUU de una grave amenaza, mediante una operación de falsa bandera preparada por sectores extremistas de la derecha local, se intenta colocar explosivos letales en la embajada de EEUU en Venezuela", escribió el parlamentario. Más adelante, en su comunicado indica que las advertencias también se han hecho a una embajada europea, "para que se sirva comunicar de la gravedad de esta información a personal diplomático de EEUU", destaca. El jefe del Poder Legislativo asegura, igualmente, que han sido reforzadas las medidas de seguridad en la Embajada de Estados Unidos, "que nuestro gobierno respeta y protege", concluye el jefe de los Procesos de Diálogos de Venezuela.

[machine translation] The president of the National Assembly (AN), and head of the Dialogue for the Peace of Venezuela, deputy Jorge Rodríguez; reported on Sunday night that the Government of Donald Trump has been warned, in three ways, of a serious threat against the U.S. Embassy in Venezuela. Through his accounts in digital networks, Rodriguez reported that through an operation, prepared by extremist sectors of the local right, attempts are made to attack the diplomatic headquarters with lethal explosives. "In my capacity as head of dialogue and peace of Venezuela, I want to announce that by three separate means we have warned the U.S. government of a serious threat, through a false flag operation prepared by extremist sectors of the local right, we try to place lethal explosives in the U.S. embassy in Venezuela," the parliamentarian wrote. Later, in his statement, he said that the warnings have also been made to a European embassy, "so that it is useful to communicate the seriousness of this information to U.S. diplomatic personnel," he said. The head of the Legislative Branch also assures that security measures have been reinforced in the U.S. Embassy, "which our government respects and protects," concludes the head of the Dialogue Processes of Venezuela.

2025 Oct 7: DW [German news]: "Venezuela claims to have foiled plot targeting US embassy" by Mahima Kapoor with AFP, Reuters, Subtitle: "Washington and Caracas severed diplomatic ties in 2019, and now only a few Venezuelan employees remain at the US embassy."

Venezuelan authorities foiled an operation by so-called domestic terrorists involving the planting of explosives at the US embassy in Caracas, President Nicolas Maduro said on Monday.

He described it as an attempt to exacerbate the dispute between the two countries.

[...]

What did Maduro say?

The president made these comments during his weekly television program. He said that two sources "agreed on the possibility that a local terrorist group placed an explosive device at the US embassy in Caracas," without naming them.

[...]

"We have reinforced security measures at this diplomatic mission," he said.

Maduro said the embassy was protected "despite all the differenced we have had with the governments of the United States."

Caracas and Washington severed diplomatic ties in 2019, and the US embassy only supports a few local employees.

Maduro added that the government was looking to capture those involved in the plot and knew who had orchestrated it.

"This was backed by a person who will be known soon and asked for by a person who will be known soon, but this is all ongoing," Maduro said, adding that the goal of the plot was to blame his government "and begin an escalation of conflict."

[...]

Diplomatic relations between Caracas and Washington are at an all-time low amid the latter carrying a series of military strikes on Venezuelan vessels that the US claims were carrying drugs.

The US has hit at least four vessels in recent weeks with over 20 killed in the strikes. [...]

In response to the strikes, Caracas has deployed thousands of troops along the South American country's land and sea borders.

October 8th

October 8th: Democrats in Senate try to limit Trump's war powers but fail

2025 Oct 8: WaPo: "Senate bipartisan move to restrict Trump’s Venezuela war powers fails" by Noah Robertson, Katie Tarrant, and Ellen Nakashima.

A bipartisan measure to block the Trump administration’s lethal strikes against alleged Venezuelan drug smugglers fell short in the Senate on Wednesday night, in what Democratic lawmakers framed as a failure of Congress to assert its constitutional role to decide whether the country enters war.

[...]

Democratic lawmakers have pushed back, arguing that military officials in multiple classified briefings have not definitively identified the victims or explained why the military is using deadly force rather than the long-standing protocol of interdicting vessels at sea.

The Wednesday [Oct 8] vote marked the most direct confrontation between lawmakers and the Trump administration over the strikes, which Democrats have called unconstitutional and some Republicans have privately worried may lack a legal basis.

“What we are doing is a very simple, straightforward resolution that just says, Congress, be Congress,” Tim Kaine (D-Virginia), one of the senators leading the measure, said during a news conference before the vote. “These military actions should stop unless authorized.”

The administration has escalated its campaign, sending U.S. Navy warships and military aircraft to the region, with Trump saying the attacks will continue and may broaden from “international waters” into direct strikes on Venezuelan land.

[...]

Democratic lawmakers have argued the Pentagon has not made a conclusive case for taking military action.

“I have no idea precisely the identities of who was on these ships, or even whether the administration knows their identities,” said Adam Schiff (D-California), another senator leading the vote.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) also criticized the strikes as “extrajudicial killings,” at times directly confronting administration officials.

“Is it too much to ask to know the names of those we kill before we kill them, to know what evidence exists of their guilt?” Paul said Wednesday on the Senate floor, calling the administration’s argument “madness.” Paul and one other Republican senator, Lisa Murkowski, were the only two who broke with party lines to support the 48-to-51 motion at Wednesday’s vote. One Democrat, John Fetterman (D-Pennsylvania), voted against.

[...]

In September, more than half of the Senate’s Democratic caucus signed a letter requesting answers to a list of basic questions around the strikes — from who was on board the vessels to what military assets were involved in the attacks — in an effort to build a case against the operation. They never received a response from the White House, Kaine said.

Speaking before the resolution was introduced, Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), who voted for the motion, said he had not seen any legal justification for the four strikes that have already happened. “I think it’s disturbing if the president can act as prosecutor, judge, jury and executioner,” he said.

Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colorado) is leading a companion effort on the war powers resolution in the House, though a vote on his measure isn’t expected until after the government shutdown ends.

October 9th

October 9th: The Venezuelan opposition leader wins the Nobel Peace prize

2025 Oct 10, 1:01 AM: AP [via Yahoo]: "Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado wins the Nobel Peace Prize" by Kostya Manenkov, Regina Garcia Cano, and Geir Moulson

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado won the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday for her struggle to achieve a democratic transition in the South American nation, winning recognition as a woman “who keeps the flame of democracy burning amid a growing darkness.”

The former opposition presidential candidate is a “key, unifying figure” in the once deeply divided opposition to President Nicolás Maduro’s government, said Jørgen Watne Frydnes, chair of the Norwegian Nobel committee.

“In the past year, Ms. Machado has been forced to live in hiding,” Watne Frydnes said. “Despite serious threats against her life, she has remained in the country, a choice that has inspired millions. When authoritarians seize power, it is crucial to recognize courageous defenders of freedom who rise and resist.”

[...]

Machado, who turned 58 this week, was set to run against Maduro in last year's presidential election, but the government disqualified her. Edmundo González, who had never run for office before, took her place. The lead-up to the election saw widespread repression, including disqualifications, arrests and human rights violations.

The crackdown on dissent only increased after the country’s National Electoral Council, which is stacked with Maduro loyalists, declared him the winner despite credible evidence to the contrary.

The election results announced by the Electoral Council sparked protests across the country to which the government responded with force that ended with more than 20 people dead. They also prompted an end to diplomatic relations between Venezuela and various foreign countries, including Argentina.

Machado went into hiding and has not been seen in public since January. A Venezuelan court issued an arrest warrant for González over the publication of election results. Spain granted him asylum.

More than 800 people are in prison in Venezuela for political reasons, including González’s son-in-law, Rafael Tudares, according to the human rights advocacy group Foro Penal.

Dozens of those prisoners participated in Machado’s efforts last year. Some of her closest collaborators, including her campaign manager, avoided prison by sheltering for more than a year at a diplomatic compound in Caracas. They remained there until May, when they fled to the U.S.

Allow me to spell out what has not been here: The "local right" ["la derecha local"] of which the head of the Dialogue for the Peace of Venezuela, Jorge Rodríguez, claims an "extremist sector" was planning a false-flag terrorist attack on the US Embassy in Caracas, is that which is headed up by María Corina Machado, who was awared the Nobel Peace Prize three days later.

Also October 9th: Venezuela requests emergency intervention from the UN Security Council

2025 Oct 10: CBS News: "Venezuela asks U.N. for emergency meeting over U.S. military actions, saying it expects "armed attack" soon"

Venezuela's government on Thursday requested an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council focused on the U.S. military actions in recent weeks in the waters off the South American country. Caracas cited "mounting threats" from the U.S., which has conducted multiple military strikes on alleged drug boats off Venezuela.

Venezuela made the request in a letter addressed to Russia's ambassador to the U.N. and council president, Vassily Nebenzia, that accused the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump of seeking to topple Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and threatening "peace, security and stability regionally and internationally."

Maduro's government also expressed its expectation of an "armed attack" against Venezuela in "a very short time."

At U.N. headquarters in New York, diplomats told AFP the talks would take place on Friday at 3 p.m.

The request came a day after members of Congress voted down legislation that would have put a check on Mr. Trump's ability to use deadly military force against drug traffickers. [...]

Maduro's government, however, maintains that the White House is using drug trafficking only as an excuse for the operation.

"The ulterior motive remains the same as that which has characterized the United States of America's actions toward Venezuela for more than 26 years: to advance its 'regime change' policies in order to seize control of the vast natural resources found in Venezuelan territory," Samuel Moncada, Venezuela's ambassador to the U.N., wrote in the letter.

Venezuela's request does not mention the nationalities of the 21 people killed in the four strikes on boats that the U.S. has claimed to have been carrying drugs. But in mentioning the four strikes, Venezuela's government offered the clearest acknowledgment yet of the first attack, which it initially doubted by arguing that a video Mr. Trump released showing the attack had been created with artificial intelligence.

The Trump administration has said three of the targeted boats set out to sea from Venezuela.

Russia has long been an ally of Venezuela.

[...]

Venezuela's request to the U.N. came just hours before the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Venezuelan political opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.

Also October 9th: The US asks Grenada, 100 miles off Venezuela's coast, to allow US military installation

2025 Oct 9, 6:14 pm: Miami Herald: "Grenada weighs U.S. radar proposal linked to anti-drug campaign targeting Venezuela" by Jacqueline Charles and Antonio María Delgado

The government of Grenada said Thursday it is “carefully reviewing” a request by the Trump administration to deploy radar and other equipment on its territory.

The confirmation from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs comes after local media reported that such a request had been made by the United States, which has ramped up its presence in the southern Caribbean — allegedly to target drug cartels operating from Venezuela.

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Export Development confirms that a request for the temporary installation of radar equipment and associated technical personnel at the Maurice Bishop International Airport was received from the Government of the United States of America,” the statement said.

The ministries of National Security, Legal Affairs, and Foreign Affairs “are carefully assessing the request and reviewing it in technical consultations, in coordination with the Grenada Airports Authority and other relevant agencies,” the government added.

“At this stage, the Government of Grenada is carefully reviewing the request in accordance with established national procedures. Any decisions will be made only after all technical and legal assessments are completed,” the statement noted.

The announcement from Grenada comes amid growing signs that the U.S. is considering launching land operations inside Venezuela to disrupt drug cartel activities within the South American country. The request to Grenada stands out because Trinidad and Tobago, which is closer to Venezuela, has said that it would cooperate with Washington if it were to ask. The country’s prime minister, Kamala Persad-Bissessar, has been vocal of her endorsement of U.S. efforts in the Caribbean Sea and recently met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.

[...]

NBC News reported that options under consideration include drone strikes on cartel figures and clandestine drug labs. While no final decision has been made, officials say potential actions could begin “within weeks.”

[...]

Venezuela has already warned its Caribbean neighbors that it would retaliate if they support the U.S. military in any hostile actions.

Speaking last month in a video posted on social media, Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López warned neighboring Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago not to allow the U.S. to drag them into an armed conflict.

“I tell these governments... that if we are attacked from their territory, they will also receive a response, and that is in legitimate defense,” Padrino declared in a video shared on his Telegram channel.

Padrino also accused Washington of sharply intensifying aerial surveillance of Venezuela, citing a surge in spy flights last month. “Now they moved from a daytime pattern to doing it at night and at dawn, and tripled in August the intelligence and reconnaissance operations against Venezuela,” he said.

[...]

In total, approximately 4,500 [US] Marines and sailors have been deployed, supported by a cruiser, several destroyers, and a Los Angeles-class attack submarine equipped with more than 400 missile tubes capable of precision strikes. Ten stealth F-35 fighter jets have been stationed in Puerto Rico, with the capability to neutralize Venezuela’s aging fleet of Sukhoi-30s and F-16s.

U.S. Marines have conducted joint exercises on the island [of Grenada], while Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Daniel Caine have made high-profile visits.

October 10th

October 10th: the Nobel Peace Prize winner dedicates the prize to Trump, confusing a lot of people who haven't been keeping score

2025 Oct 10, 9:30 a.m.: María Corina Machado (@mariacorinaya) on X: https://x.com/MariaCorinaYA/status/1976642376119549990 :

[...] I dedicate this prize to the suffering people of Venezuela and to President Trump for his decisive support of our cause!

2025 Oct 10, 12:18 p.m.: NPR: "Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado wins 2025 Nobel Peace Prize"

Despite her popularity, Machado has also drawn criticism. She is a right-wing politician considered to be Venezuela's "iron lady" — the nickname of Britain's late former Conservative prime minister, Margaret Thatcher — who favors privatizing the state oil company and free-market policies, and supports international efforts to isolate and pressure the Venezuelan government. She has been lauded by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who as senator co-signed a letter to the Norwegian Nobel Committee endorsing Machado for the 2024 peace prize.

A lot of Americans and other people ignoring Latin America thought that by awarding a Venezuelan the Nobel Peace Prize, the committee was rebuking the Trump administration, and praising Venezuela. Not so much.

2025 Oct 10: NYT: "Peace Prize Winner Has Supported Trump’s Military Actions in the Caribbean" [Paywall Defeater] by Julie Turkewitz, subtitle: "María Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader honored by the Nobel committee, has urged President Trump to help oust the ruler of her country, Nicolás Maduro."

María Corina Machado, the winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, has emerged as a strong supporter of President Trump’s military buildup in the Caribbean, arguing, like Mr. Trump, that Venezuela’s autocratic leader, Nicolás Maduro, poses an enormous security threat to the region.

“This is about saving lives,” she told Fox News last month after the United States began bombing suspected drug boats in the Caribbean, “not only Venezuelan lives, but also lives of American people, because as you have said, and we have heard, Maduro is the head of a narco-terrorist structure of cooperation.”

Ms. Machado, in statements to the press in recent weeks, has said that, should Mr. Maduro fall, her movement was prepared to take territorial and administrative controlof Venezuela, and that they have a plan for the first 100 hours and the first 100 days of a transition.

She has also touted an economic plan to American and other investors, saying that a democratic Venezuela under her movement's control has the potential to generate $1.7 trillion in wealth in 15 years. [In June. - S.]

[...]

Ms. Machado has largely avoided commenting on whether Mr. Maduro’s removal should involve U.S. military intervention inside Venezuela.

In an interview last month, her adviser for international affairs, Pedro Urruchurtu, said that her team was communicating with the Trump administration about plans for Mr. Maduro’s removal.

The opposition’s strategy, he said, includes persuading other governments, including the United States, to take diplomatic, financial, intelligence and law enforcement actions against Mr. Maduro.

But, he added: “It has to be done with the use of force, because otherwise it wouldn’t be possible to defeat a regime like the one we’re facing.”

Ms. Machado’s party, Vente Venezuela, has been sharing online the threats made by Trump officials against alleged Venezuelan drug traffickers.

“If you’re in the Caribbean, if you’re north of Venezuela,” the party wrote on X, echoing a statement from the U.S. Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, “and you’re trying to traffic drugs to the US, you’re a legitimate target for the US.”

2025 Oct 10: Democracy Now [leftish world news]: "2025 Nobel Peace Prize for Anti-Maduro Leader María Corina Machado “Opposite of Peace”: Greg Grandin"

[...] Machado has voiced support for U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and other efforts to topple the government; she aims to privatize the country’s state oil industry and has praised right-wing Latin American leaders, including Argentina’s Javier Milei and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. [...] “It’s a perplexing choice,” says Greg Grandin, a historian of Latin America. “They’ve given it to somebody who’s completely aligned with the most militarist and darkest face of U.S. imperialism.”

[...] "It’s a — it’s a perplexing choice on a number of levels and, it seems, inevitably will bring about the opposite of peace. You know, Machado is not a unifier, as the committee said. She represents the most intransigent face of the opposition, and not just — as you mentioned in your introduction, not just against Maduro, but against, you know, a democratically elected Hugo Chávez. She was a supporter of the 2002 coup. She has constantly divided the opposition and handicapped the opposition, frankly, when the opposition was trying to come up with a more moderate position that could challenge the social — the socialism of — 21st-century socialism that Chávez represented. She constantly represented a more hard line in terms of economics, in terms of U.S. relations, you know, and that intransigence has led her to rely on outside powers, notably the United States.

[...] It really seems to be a disastrous choice and a smear on the — I mean, your next guest is Cory Doctorow. It’s really the enshittification of the Nobel Peace Prize. I mean, they gave it to Kissinger in the 1970s, but at least he — they waited 'til he negotiated an end to the Vietnam War. [...]

it’s just going to harden positions all around. And Machado has not denounced, she’s actually endorsed the general framework for the — that legitimates the bombing of these go-fast boats in the Caribbean, four of them now, last one filled, apparently, with Colombians. She hasn’t denounced it. She’s supported it. She supports the idea, the framework, that the government is basically a cartel, and to blow up these boats is not to kill Venezuelans, but to kill, as she puts it, narcotraficantes.

I mean, it’s really — you know, there are plenty of feminist activists that oppose Maduro in Venezuela that would have legitimated the peace prize, that would have legitimated the opposition. [...interesting list of Venezuelan opposition feminists elided for length...] But this really just actually strengthens Maduro, because, you know, it confirms his narrative about the opposition being in league with the Trump administration. So, you can just imagine that this is going to, as I said, bring about the opposite of peace. It’s going to — it’s laying the groundwork and justifying greater military escalation. It’s really a disaster. It’s really, really hard to understand how they came to this decision.

2025 Oct 10: CAIR [Council on American-Islamic Relations, "the nation’s largest Muslim civil rights and advocacy organization", press release]: "BREAKING: CAIR Calls on Nobel Peace Prize Winner Maria Machado to Renounce Her Support for European Fascism, Likud Party and Anti-Muslim Bigotry"

In February [2025], Machado delivered virtual remarks at the far-right Patriots of Europe conference in Madrid, where speakers included anti-Muslim extremists Geert Wilders, Marie Le Pen and Viktor Orban.

Reuters reported in February, “All the speakers railed against immigration and most called for a new “Reconquista,” a reference to the Medieval re-conquest of Muslim-controlled parts of the Iberian Peninsula by Christian kingdoms. Earlier, former Estonian Finance Minister Martin Helme kicked off the rally following a video message by Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.”

Also October 10th: It comes out that Maduro had been trying to negotiate his way out of US demands for his outster by offering up "a dominant stake in Venezuela's oil"

2025 Oct 10: NYT: "Venezuela’s Maduro Offered the U.S. His Nation’s Riches to Avoid Conflict" by Anatoly Kurmanaev, Julian E. Barnes and Julie Turkewitz, subtitle: "Venezuela’s autocrat had proposed allocating his country’s oil wealth and other natural resources to the U.S. and ending deals with American adversaries to appease President Trump."

Venezuelan officials, hoping to end their country’s clash with the United States, offered the Trump administration a dominant stake in Venezuela’s oil and other mineral wealth in discussions that lasted for months, according to multiple people close to the talks.

[...]

Under a deal discussed between a senior U.S. official and Mr. Maduro’s top aides, the Venezuelan strongman offered to open up all existing and future oil and gold projects to American companies, give preferential contracts to American businesses, reverse the flow of Venezuelan oil exports from China to the United States, and slash his country’s energy and mining contracts with Chinese, Iranian and Russian firms.

The Trump administration ended up rebuffing Mr. Maduro’s economic concessions and cut off diplomacy with Venezuela last week. The move effectively killed the deal, at least for now, the people close to the discussion said.

[...]

This article is based on interviews with more than a dozen American and Venezuelan representatives of disparate factions calling for diplomacy with Mr. Maduro. They described their discussions on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

Publicly, the Venezuelan government has responded to Mr. Trump’s military escalation with defiance and vows to defend what it calls a socialist revolution started in the 1990s by Mr. Maduro’s late predecessor and mentor Hugo Chávez. At the same time, Mr. Maduro has said he remains open to negotiations and his government continues accepting deportation flights from the United States.

Behind the scenes, however, Venezuela’s senior officials, with Mr. Maduro’s blessing, have offered Washington far-reaching concessions that would essentially eliminate the vestiges of resource nationalism at the core of Mr. Chávez’s movement.

While Mr. Grenell and Venezuelan officials made progress on economic issues, they failed to agree on Mr. Maduro’s political future, according to the people close to the negotiations. Venezuela’s foreign minister, Yván Gil, said in an interview last month that Mr. Maduro would not negotiate his exit.

Also on October 10th: UN Security Council has emergency meeting per Venezuela's request

2025 Oct 10: US Mission to the UN: "Remarks at a UN Security Council Briefing on Venezuela" by the US Mission to the UN, John Kelle,Political Counselor:

AS DELIVERED

Thank you Mr. President. The Trump Administration is on the offensive against drug cartels and drug trafficking into the United States. President Trump has been very clear that he is going to use the full power of America, and the full might of the United States, to take on and eradicate these drug cartels no matter where they’re operating from and no matter how long they have been able to act with impunity.

President Trump has also made very clear he’s not going to allow the United States to continue to be flooded with cocaine and fentanyl and other drugs coming from different places including Venezuela, which is a common route. We are going to put an end to the drug cartels that are flooding American streets with their product and killing Americans.

The United States has designated Tren de Aragua and Cartel de Los Soles as terrorist groups, which is what they are. When you flood American streets with drugs, you are terrorizing America, and that is going to end.

Mr. President, let me be clear. The cartels carrying out this assault against our citizens are armed, well organized, and violent. They have financial means, technical sophistication, and extensive paramilitary capabilities. They are bringing death and destruction to Americans. Therefore, President Trump determined these cartels are non-state armed groups, designated them as terrorist organizations, and determined that their actions constitute an armed attack against the United States.

Friendly foreign nations have made significant efforts to combat these terroristic organizations and have suffered significant loss of life as a result.

The United States has reached a critical point where we must use force in self-defense and defense of others. Based on the cumulative effect of these hostile acts against the citizens and interests of the United States and friendly foreign nations, President Trump has determined the United States is in a non-international armed conflict and has directed the Department of War to conduct operations against them pursuant to the law of armed conflict and consistent with Article 51 of the UN Charter.

Although these strikes have been limited in scope, U.S. forces remain postured to carry out military operations as necessary to prevent further deaths or injury to American citizens by eliminating the threat.

Mr. President, let me stress that the United States does not recognize Nicolas Maduro or his cronies as the government of Venezuela. Nicolas Maduro is a fugitive from American justice and the head of the vicious narco-terrorist Cartel de Los Soles.

Moreover, it is the action and policies of the illegitimate Maduro regime that pose an extraordinary threat to both the region and the national security of the United States.

We appreciate the countries in the Western Hemisphere that have heeded our call to designate Tren de Aragua and Cartel de Los Soles as terrorist groups, recognizing the threat they pose to the entire region.

To reiterate, the United States will not waver in our action to protect Americans from narco-terrorists.

I thank you.

2025 Oct 11: Venezuelanalysis (non-profit pro-Venezuelan government leftist independent journalism and analysis): "China, Russia Condemn US Military Threats Against Venezuela at UNSC Meeting" by Ricardo Vaz, Subtitle: "Venezuela’s UN Ambassador Samuel Moncada accused Washington of seeking “excuses to fabricate a conflict” aimed at controlling oil resources."

[...] The Friday [Oct 10] afternoon session was held at Venezuela’s request, with the Nicolás Maduro government warning of the possibility of a US armed attack against the country “in the very short term.” No resolutions were proposed.

Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, who currently heads the UNSC, condemned Washington’s “unprecedented pressure and military threats.” The Russian diplomat warned the US against committing an “irreparable mistake” by launching a direct attack against the Caribbean nation.

“If there is an attack against Venezuela, it could affect the entire region,” he said.

Nebenzya went on to criticize recent US strikes against alleged drug-carrying boats, which have killed more than 20 civilians, as flagrant violations of international law and human rights. The Russian official likewise rebuked Washington’s “narcoterrorism” accusations against Caracas as “fit for a Hollywood script.”

Chinese Ambassador to the UN Fu Cong joined the condemnation of the lethal strikes against unarmed vessels in the Caribbean, calling them “unilateral and excessive” actions. The Trump administration has not provided evidence that the vessels carried drugs.

“We reject the threats or the use of force in international relations and repudiate the foreign meddling in Venezuela’s internal affairs,” Cong stated during the session. Beijing’s diplomat urged Washington to heed international calls for peace and stability in the region.

October 13th

October 13th: Maduro closes Venezuela's embassies in Norway and Australia

2025 Oct 13, 8:04 pm: UPI: "Venezuela to close embassies in Norway, Australia" by By Sheri Walsh

Venezuela announced Monday it will close its embassies in Norway and Australia in a "strategic re-assignment of resources" amid growing tensions with the United States and a Nobel Peace Prize for the opposition.

President Nicolas Maduro announced Venezuela would open new embassies in Burkina Faso and Zimbabwe, "two sister nations, strategic allies in the anti-colonial fight and in the resistance against hegemonic pressures," according to the Caracas government.
"The central objective of this reorganization is to optimize state resources and redefine our diplomatic presence to strengthen alliances with the Global South, promoting solidarity among peoples and cooperation in strategic areas for mutual development," Venezuela's foreign ministry wrote in the statement.

Also October 13th: Venezuelan activist and political consultant in exile in Colombia were shot

2025 Oct 13, 5:47 PM EDT: Latin Times: "Venezuelan Refugees and Activists Shot in Colombia After Fleeing Maduro Regime" by Alicia Civita. Subtitle: "Luis Peche Arteaga and human rights activist Yendri Velásquez were exiting their home in Bogotá"

Two Venezuelan exiles living in Colombia, political consultant Luis Peche Arteaga and human rights activist Yendri Velásquez, were shot and wounded Monday afternoon in northern Bogotá. The attack has sparked alarm among human rights organizations and migrant groups, who warn that violence against critics of the Maduro regime is spreading across Latin America.

According to initial reports, both men were leaving the residential building where they live when gunmen opened fire from a moving vehicle. Witnesses said at least ten shots were fired before the assailants escaped. Residents and workers in the area helped the victims until paramedics arrived. Both men were taken to a nearby hospital, treated for gunshot wounds, and later declared stable.

The Victims

Yendri Velásquez is a human rights defender and member of Amnesty International. He is also an LGBTQ+ activist well known among Venezuelan migrants in Bogotá. Velásquez has lived in Colombia for more than a year after being detained and disappearing for several days by Venezuelan state agents when he attempted to leave Caracas for a United Nations conference. Since then, he has requested asylum and participated in campaigns promoting the rights of refugees and minorities.

Luis Peche Arteaga, director of the political consultancy Sala 58 and a dual citizen of Venezuela and Colombia, fled Caracas in May after receiving threats linked to his work. His decision to leave came after the kidnapping of his friend, journalist Carlos Marcano, by Venezuelan intelligence forces, an incident documented by press freedom groups.

His last post on X (Twitter) before the attack was criticizing Maduro's decision to close the Venezuelan embassy in Oslo after the Norwegian Nobel Prize Organization recognized opposition leader María Corina Machado with the Nobel Peace Prize last week. [Actual text of tweet: "el chavismo cerró su embajada en Noruega porque María Corina ganó el Nobel" ("Chavismo closed its embassy in Norway because María Corina won the Nobel Prize." Chavismo = the political philosophy of Hugo Chavez, and how Maduro and the reigning party in Venezuela is described politically by others) – S.]

[...]

Human rights organizations have expressed concern over an increase in threats and assaults against Venezuelan dissidents who sought refuge in Colombia, Peru, and Chile.

These incidents form part of a growing pattern of intimidation that Venezuelan exiles and international observers describe as transnational repression. They coincide with escalating pressure inside Venezuela, where human rights groups estimate there are more than 280 political prisoners detained for opposing Nicolás Maduro's government.

October 14th

October 14th: US bombs fifth boat off Venezuela, six killed

2025 Oct 14: AP: US kills 6 people in strike on boat accused of carrying drugs near Venezuela, Trump says by Michelle L. Price and Konstantin Toropin

The United States struck another small boat accused of carrying drugs in the waters off Venezuela, killing six people, President Donald Trump said Tuesday.

Those who died in the strike were aboard the vessel, and no U.S. forces were harmed, the president said in a social media post. It’s the fifth deadly strike in the Caribbean as Trump’s administration has asserted it’s treating alleged drug traffickers as unlawful combatants who must be met with military force.

Also October 14th: US announces Admiral in charge of US SOUTHCOM visiting Antigua and Barbuda and Grenada

2025 Oct 14: US Embassy to Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: "Commander of U.S. Southern Command, Admiral Alvin Holsey to Visit Antigua and Barbuda, Grenada for Key Leader Engagements "

U.S. Navy Adm. Alvin Holsey, Commander of U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), will visit Antigua and Barbuda and Grenada Oct. 14-15 to meet with leaders in both nations, including Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda Gaston Browne and Prime Minister of Grenada Dickon Mitchell. This marks Adm. Holsey’s first visit to both nations since assuming command of SOUTHCOM last November and is an opportunity to further strengthen security cooperation with key partners in the Caribbean. In addition to meetings with both prime ministers, Adm. Holsey’s agenda includes meetings with Antigua and Barbuda Chief of Defence Staff Brigadier Telbert Benjamin and Royal Grenada Police Force (RGPF) Acting Commissioner Randy Connaught. The meetings will center on reaffirming the longstanding security collaboration with both nations and shared challenges that affect the Eastern Caribbean, including transnational organized crime, illicit trafficking, and border security.

Antigua and Barbuda and Grenada are vital contributors to the collective efforts of like-minded nations to strengthen security in the Eastern Caribbean. U.S. Southern Command remains committed to continuing its longstanding cooperation with both nations. Adm. Holsey’s visit underscores the United States’ unwavering commitment to partnering with Eastern Caribbean partners like Grenada and Antigua and Barbuda to advance regional security and stability.

2025 Oct 14: Latin Times: "Top U.S. General To Visit Countries Just Off Venezuela Amid Large Deployment Of Troops And Vessels" by Demian Bio. Subtitle: "The U.S. is seeking to install military equipment in Grenada, which is 100 miles from Venezuela"

The commander of the U.S. Central Command (Centcom) Alvin Holsey will visit Grenada and Trinidad and Tobago, two countries close to Venezuela, as tensions with Caracas remain high.

[...]

The visit takes place as the U.S. continues to increase its presence in the region. The armed forces are seeking to install military equipment in Grenada, located 100 miles from Venezuela. The country has not replied to the request. Antigua and Barbuda rejected holding any military equipment from the U.S.

Which brings us to today. (Well, it was today when I started writing this.)

October 15th

October 15th: Trump has authorized covert CIA operations in Venezuela

[CW: 'highly classified']

2025 Oct 15: NYT: "Trump Administration Authorizes Covert C.I.A. Action in Venezuela" by Julian E. Barnes and Tyler Pager

The Trump administration has secretly authorized the C.I.A. to conduct covert action in Venezuela, according to U.S. officials, stepping up a campaign against Nicolás Maduro, the country’s authoritarian leader.

The authorization is the latest step in the Trump administration’s intensifying pressure campaign against Venezuela. For weeks, the U.S. military has been targeting boats off the Venezuelan coast it says are transporting drugs, killing 27 people. American officials have been clear, privately, that the end goal is to drive Mr. Maduro from power.

Mr. Trump acknowledged on Wednesday that he had authorized the covert action and said the United States was considering strikes on Venezuelan territory.

“We are certainly looking at land now, because we’ve got the sea very well under control,” the president told reporters hours after The New York Times reported the secret authorization.

Any strikes on Venezuelan territory would be a significant escalation. After several of the boat strikes, the administration made the point that the operations had taken place in international waters.

The new authority would allow the C.I.A. to carry out lethal operations in Venezuela and conduct a range of operations in the Caribbean.

The agency would be able to take covert action against Mr. Maduro or his government either unilaterally or in conjunction with a larger military operation. It is not known whether the C.I.A. is planning any specific operations in Venezuela.

But the development comes as the U.S. military is planning its own possible escalation, drawing up options for President Trump to consider, including strikes inside Venezuela.

The scale of the military buildup in the region is substantial: There are currently 10,000 U.S. troops there, most of them at bases in Puerto Rico, but also a contingent of Marines on amphibious assault ships. In all, the Navy has eight surface warships and a submarine in the Caribbean.

The new authorities, known in intelligence jargon as a presidential finding, were described by multiple U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the highly classified document.

[...]

The Trump administration’s strategy on Venezuela, developed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with help from John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, aims to oust Mr. Maduro from power.

Mr. Ratcliffe has said little about what his agency is doing in Venezuela. But he has promised that the C.I.A. under his leadership would become more aggressive. During his confirmation hearing, Mr. Ratcliffe said he would make the C.I.A. less averse to risk and more willing to conduct covert action when ordered by the president, “going places no one else can go and doing things no one else can do.”

Also October 15th: Three US Air Force B-52 bombers buzzed Venezuela for four hours; Venezeula scrambles an F-16 in response

2025 Oct 15, 1:05 pm EDT: Newsweek: "Map Shows Where US B-52 Bombers Deployed on Venezuela’s Doorstep" by Amir Daftari and John Feng

Massive U.S. B-52H Stratofortress bombers have been spotted flying sorties over the southern Caribbean, hovering near Venezuelan airspace in a clear demonstration of military might.

Three aircraft—call signs BUNNY01, BUNNY02, and BUNNY03—were observed on extended flight patterns from Louisiana's Barksdale Air Force Base in a striking show of force aimed at Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

2025 Oct 15: The Times [UK]: "Trump considers airstrikes on Venezuela as B-52s spotted near coast" George Grylls

The planes spent at least part of the flight with their transponders on, which means they could be publicly tracked. For about two hours, they orbited the Maiquetía Flight Information Region, which is international airspace but is managed by Venezuelan air traffic control.

The US has deployed ten F-35s and a number of MQ-9 Reaper drones to Puerto Rico. It has also sent three Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers, three amphibious assault ships carrying 2,500 US marines, P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and a Los Angeles-class nuclear-powered attack submarine to the Caribbean Sea.

2025 Oct 15: Preston Stewart [YT]: "American Bombers Send A Message To Venezuela"

[0:00] So, the United States just deployed three B-52 bombers off the coast of Venezuela as a show of force, which prompted Venezuela to scramble its lone operational F-16. [...]

The flight [2:44] profile is consistent with long range training and deterrence patrols routinely conducted by B-52s across the Caribbean. These missions often test endurance, navigation, and joint coordination with regional partners while remaining within international airspace. They say, however, the proximity of this particular patrol to Venezuelan territory and its visibility on open tracking platforms suggested a deliberate signaling exercise and intended to reinforce US reach and readiness in the region.

So again, definitely a show of force. We wanted Venezuela to see this. I would argue [3:17] they wanted everybody to see this around the world, at least in the region.

It [3:22] definitely got Venezuela's attention. We got notification across a number of different channels that their lone operational F-16 was launched in response. Now, a couple key components here. First off, it's an old F-16. It's the one that's operational. And of course, you know, one F-16 does not pose a massive threat to the United States military.

It is something. And I think just the fact that these two countries [3:45] have their aircraft in the air at the same time is just another step up that escalation ladder, right? It's one more circumstance where something could go wrong. Mistaken identification. Maybe one flies into an area they're not supposed to be in and all of a sudden we've actually got a real incident here.

[4:03] Another key note is my understanding that F-16 was not airborne until the B-52s left the region. Have to dial in that timing exactly. But from what I've seen so far, it's not like the B-52s were in that uh kind of holding pattern off the coast of Venezuela and they were pushed out by the F-16. It does sound like there was a gap uh between when they were both in the same space, which is important when we're talking about this is just a show of force exercise.

[4:31] The last thing you want is a show of force to turn into a kinetic operation that escalates into a larger war. So hopefully there is a little bit of deconfliction there.

Also October 15th: It comes out that the boat of Colombians bombed in September was not bombed by mistake, but was deliberate

2025 Oct 15: CNN: "US military strike on boat in Caribbean targeted Colombians signaling broader campaign against drug groups " by Natasha Bertrand and Zachary Cohen.

At least one US military strike in the Caribbean over the last two months targeted Colombian nationals on a boat that had left from Colombia, according to two people briefed by the Pentagon about the strikes.

The deliberate targeting of Colombians, which has not been previously reported, suggests that the US military’s campaign against suspected narcotics trafficking groups in the Caribbean is wider than previously believed as President Donald Trump threatened further military and covert action Wednesday.
[...]

The third publicly acknowledged strike on September 19 targeted a boat leaving Colombia, the sources said.

The boat was suspected of carrying Colombians affiliated with Colombian terrorist organizations, the sources said, but the Pentagon was unable to determine the individual identities of each person on the boats before they struck them.
[...]

CNN has reached out to Colombia’s foreign ministry for comment. Referring to the vessel that was struck on September 19, Colombian President Gustavo Petro said at the time on X: “If the boat was sunk in the Dominican Republic, then it is possible that they were Colombians. This means that officials from the US and the Dominican Republic would be guilty of the murder of Colombian citizens.”

[...]

Colombian President Petro also said on X earlier this month that “indications show” the fourth US military strike on a boat in the Caribbean also targeted Colombians. “The aggression is against all of Latin America and the Caribbean.” The US had announced days earlier that it had hit a fourth boat in the Caribbean.

The White House denied Petro’s claims in a statement, saying that “the United States looks forward to President Petro publicly retracting his baseless and reprehensible statement.”

But sources told CNN that while the fourth US military strike may not have targeted Colombians, at least the one previous strike on September 19 did.

Also October 15th: Nobel Laureate Machado exhorts Trump to rescue Venezuela from Maduro

2025 Oct 15, 6:27 pm: CNN: "Venezuela’s Nobel Peace Prize winner calls on Trump to stop Maduro’s ‘war’ on her country" by Billy Stockwell

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who was awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize last week, has called for greater US support to stop what she described as a “war” on her country by President Nicolás Maduro.

In an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour Wednesday [Oct 15], Machado echoed the Trump administration in calling Maduro the leader of a “criminal narco-terrorism structure” while asking US President Donald Trump for greater “help” in unseating him from power. [...]

She has also accused Maduro of turning Venezuela into “a real threat to the national security of the United States.”

“In the case of Maduro and his criminal narco-terrorism structure, (it) is (supported) through drug trafficking, gold trafficking, arms trafficking, even human trafficking, and we need to cut those flows from coming in,” she told Amanpour.

She said that regime change will only be brought by “applying (and) enforcing the law, cutting those flows that come from these criminal activities” and that this is what would end Maduro’s “war” on his own country.
[...]

Asked later if she was directly calling for US military intervention in her country, the opposition leader did not directly answer but said she wanted to see the influence of Russia, China, Cuba and Iran curtailed and claimed that Venezuela is currently a “safe haven” for terrorist organizations.

Machado also pushed back on suggestions that Venezuela’s role in drug trafficking had been exaggerated to support the argument of those calling for regime change.

In the interview, Amanpour cited Juan Gonzalez, former US President Joe Biden’s National Security Director for the Western Hemisphere, who has previously told CNN that over 95% of the cocaine that flows into the US comes from Colombia, and that Venezuela itself has never needed to develop a “native drug producing industry” given it has large oil and gold reserves.

But Machado challenged his reasoning, citing what she claimed was an FBI report from 2020 showing that 24% of the global trade in cocaine goes through Venezuela.

Also October 15th: Trump is musing aloud to the press about airstrikes on Venezuela

2025 Oct 15, 11:54 pm BST: The Times [UK]: "Trump considers airstrikes on Venezuela as B-52s spotted near coast" by George Grylls

President Trump has said he is considering launching airstrikes on Venezuela after B-52 bombers were seen approaching the country’s Caribbean coast.

The US president said he was “certainly looking at” hitting land targets in Venezuela and confirmed that he had authorised the use of lethal force by the CIA. [...]

After the latest strike on an alleged drug-trafficking boat earlier this week, Trump threatened to bomb Venezuela.

“We’ve had a couple of days without a boat to be found,” Trump said in the White House on Wednesday [Oct 15]. “We’ve almost totally stopped it by sea. Now we’ll stop it by land.”

When asked whether that could mean launching airstrikes on Venezuela, he said: “We’re certainly looking at land now.”

[...]

Military experts have told The Times that the likeliest US attack could involve the use of Tomahawk cruise missiles fired at guerrilla training camps in the Venezuelan jungle or military bases closer to Caracas.

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