New Starship launch attempt on November 17 approved by FAA [updated]

click map to enlarge

The FAA has issued SpaceX with a licence this week to try a new Starship launch attempt. 

That attempt is now scheduled for 17 November was initially scheduled for 17 November, but postponed, due to necessary repairs on a grid fin attenuator, to 18 November, with the window opening at 13:00 UTC and running to 15:39 UTC. Back-up dates are Nov 18 to 20.

The test flight is similar to the previous failed one from April 20: launch is from Starbase (Boca Chica) in Texas into a 26.4 degrees inclined orbit with apogee at 235 km, splashdown is just short of one revolution to the NE of Kauai, Hawaii, 1.5 hours after launch. One can debate the semantics on whether the launch is orbital or suborbital.

The map above shows the flight path and the hazard zones from Navigational Warnings NAVAREA IV 1322/23 and HYDROPAC 3578/23 (the text of these warnings is given below)

Most of the flight is over Ocean and chances of sighting the spacecraft while on orbit are slim: passes over land are either in daylight, or with the Starship spacecraft in earth shadow (the latter is the case for e.g. Australia and Indonesia). 

On Kauai and Oahu in the Hawaii islands, the reentry fireball might be seen in the northern sky, if  Starship gets that far.

This is my estimate for the approximate orbit:

STARSHIP                       for launch on 18 Nov 2023 13:00:00 UTC
1 70000U 23999A   23322.54166667  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    05
2 70000 026.3975 054.9842 0064682 110.9574 322.9851 16.30015116    00

These are the relevant Navigational Warnings issued:

132050Z NOV 23
NAVAREA IV 1322/23(11,28).
GULF OF MEXICO.
TEXAS.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   AND SPACE DEBRIS 1300Z TO 1539Z DAILY 17, 19
   AND 20 NOV AND 181300Z TO 181359Z NOV
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   25-51.00N 096-46.00W, 25-48.00N 096-14.00W,
   25-40.00N 095-03.00W, 25-21.00N 093-15.00W,
   25-26.00N 092-48.00W, 25-58.00N 092-47.00W,
   26-04.00N 093-18.00W, 26-01.00N 094-13.00W,
   26-00.00N 094-48.00W, 26-03.00N 095-43.00W,
   26-06.00N 096-45.00W, 26-07.00N 096-57.00W,
   26-03.00N 097-07.00W, 26-02.00N 097-12.00W,
   25-57.00N 097-12.00W, 25-52.00N 097-01.00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA IV 1309/23.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 201639Z NOV 23

132000Z NOV 23
HYDROPAC 3578/23(19,81,83).
NORTH PACIFIC.
HAWAII TO MARSHALL ISLANDS.
DNC 12, DNC 13.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 1410Z TO 1720Z DAILY
   17, 19 AND 20 NOV AND 181410Z TO 181540Z NOV:
   A. ROCKET LAUNCHING IN AREA BOUND BY
      14-26.00N 172-39.00E, 12-55.00N 169-45.00E,
      11-44.00N 167-39.00E, 11-27.00N 167-49.00E,
      11-52.00N 168-58.00E, 12-48.00N 171-10.00E,
      14-29.00N 175-20.00E, 15-24.00N 177-41.00E,
      16-20.00N 179-40.00W, 17-42.00N 175-13.00W,
      19-35.00N 168-59.00W, 21-01.00N 164-29.00W,
      22-32.00N 160-00.00W, 23-35.00N 156-29.00W,
      24-00.00N 155-28.00W, 24-31.00N 155-39.00W,
      24-14.00N 157-43.00W, 23-26.00N 161-55.00W,
      22-44.00N 165-15.00W, 21-54.00N 167-59.00W,
      20-57.00N 170-54.00W, 19-55.00N 173-55.00W,
      19-03.00N 176-19.00W, 17-39.00N 179-59.00E,
      16-13.00N 176-31.00E, 15-36.00N 175-03.00E.
   B. SPACE DEBRIS IN AREA BOUND BY
      24-02.64N 157-33.72W, 24-08.82N 157-02.82W,
      23-32.16N 156-53.28W, 23-25.80N 157-25.56W.
2. CANCEL HYDROPAC 3550/23.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 201820Z NOV 23.

Let's see whether Starship will reach orbit this time.

 

UPDATE:

 
Starhip separated succesfully from the first stage this time (which violently disintegrated directly after separation), but Starship's auto-destruction mechanism destroyed the spacecraft just before engine shutdown and orbit insertion, at an altitude of about 148 km.

[UPDATED] A possible Missile Defense Test from Hawaii on October 25-29 (FTM-32?) and another LRHW test from Cape Canaveral

 

click map to enlarge

 [this post was updated 25 Oct 2023 to include an upcoming LRHW test from Cape Canaveral]

 

A Navigational Warning (NAVAREA XII 735/23) has appeared  that suggests a Missile Defense test will take place north of Hawaii with a target launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility at Kauai, Hawaii, in the last week of October. The window runs from October 25 to 29.

200855Z OCT 23
NAVAREA XII 735/23(19).
NORTH PACIFIC.
HAWAII.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 251930Z TO 260100Z OCT,
   ALTERNATE 261930Z TO 270100Z,
   271930Z TO 280100Z, 281930Z TO 290100Z OCT
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   22-02.00N 159-47.00W, 22-04.00N 159-52.00W,
   23-52.00N 161-49.00W, 22-37.00N 163-18.00W,
   23-00.00N 164-29.00W, 24-54.00N 164-53.00W,
   27-30.00N 167-44.00W, 29-23.00N 167-44.00W,
   35-17.00N 161-05.00W, 35-46.00N 156-36.00W,
   30-43.00N 152-22.00W, 28-18.00N 152-15.00W,
   27-35.00N 152-48.00W, 26-04.00N 155-40.00W,
   24-19.00N 160-57.00W, 22-09.00N 159-45.00W,
   22-03.00N 159-46.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 290200Z OCT 23.//

In the map above I have plotted the hazard area from the Navigational Warning. The target launch track from PMRF on Kauai can be seen, as well as a large intercept area.

Although not the same, it is riminiscent for that of test FTM-31 E1a of 30 March this year (see a March blogpost) which was a salvo firing of two SM-6 missiles from the US Navy ship USS Daniel Inouyeto that intercepted a MRBM target fired from PMRF Kauai.

The upcoming test might be FTM-32  (see page 5 of this Congressional document) which reportedly also will be a salvo firing of two SM-6 missiles against an MRBM target [edit: it was actually FTM-48]. The missiles will be fired from a US Navy Guided Missile Cruiser positioned north of Kauai, perhaps USS Carl M. Levin or USS Kidd, who both were seen sailing out of Pearl Harbor recently.

UPDATE 26 Oct 2023:

The test happened on 25 October and involved the interception of multiple targets. The interception was done by the USS Carl M. Levine (DDG120). Two HALO observing aircraft (HALO2 and HALO51) where in the air during the test, along with a US Navy P3, a USAF aircraft and fifth small aircraft. MDA news item on it here and a Naval News story here. It was test FTM-48 codenamed Vigilant Wyvern. The targets consisted of two SRBM's and two cruise missiles, the first intercepted with two SM-3 missiles, the second with two SM-2 missiles.

The MDA released this image of the test, showing one of two SRBM targets being fired from the PMRF Kauai (and the smoke trail of another one):

image: Missile Defence Agency

 They also published this video:

 [end of update]

 

LRHW Test from Cape Canaveral

Meanwhile, another Navigational Warning, NAVAREA IV 1235/23, is pointing to yet another test of the Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) from Cape Canaveral on October 26-28:

 

241619Z OCT 23
NAVAREA IV 1235/23(GEN).
NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 261500Z TO
   281840Z OCT.
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
A. 28-32.93N 080-33.90W, 28-28.00N 080-02.00W,
   28-18.00N 080-02.00W, 28-23.00N 080-31.00W,
   28-25.64N 080-34.47W.
B. 28-02.00N 078-50.00W, 28-11.00N 078-47.00W,
   27-55.00N 077-24.00W, 27-40.00N 077-27.00W.
C. 28-27.00N 080-02.00W, 28-24.00N 079-09.00W,
   28-11.00N 078-47.00W, 28-02.00N 078-50.00W,
   28-00.00N 079-12.00W, 28-18.00N 080-02.00W.
D. 27-00.00N 063-00.00W, 28-00.00N 059-00.00W,
   27-00.00N 059-00.00W, 26-00.00N 063-00.00W.
E. 23-30.00N 063-00.00W, 21-30.00N 058-30.00W,
   20-30.00N 058-30.00W, 22-30.00N 063-00.00W.
F. 28-45.00N 049-00.00W, 30-45.00N 049-00.00W,
   32-00.00N 044-00.00W, 30-00.00N 044-00.00W.
G. 17-00.00N 048-45.00W, 13-30.00N 041-30.00W,
   11-30.00N 041-30.00W, 15-00.00N 048-45.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 281940Z OCT 23.

click map to enlarge

Two earlier LRHW test attempts, in March (see this blogpost) and in September (see this blogpost) were aborted. Maybe third time is a charm.

UPDATE: this LHRW test was scrubbed as well.

The STARSHIP inaugural launch is near! [UPDATED]

Launch trajectory. Click image to enlarge

UPDATE 7 April 2023: New Navigational Warnings have been published which indicate that the launch date is being pushed back to the second half of April. The new Navigational Warnings are for April 17-21.

UPDATE 15 April 2023:  The 2.5 hour launch window opens 17 April 12:00 UTC

***

(this blogpost has been updated several times)

Navigational Warnings (NAVAREA IV 372/23 and NAVAREA XII 176/23) were published today for the long awaited inaugural launch of SpaceX's STARSHIP, the vehicle that one day should bring people to the Moon and Mars.

The Navigational Warnings fit an orbit with an orbital inclination of about 26.36 degrees. The resulting trajectory is visualised in the map above (numbers next to the trajectory represent the approximate elapsed time, in minutes, after launch). 

Launch is from Starbase Texas, and just short of one full revolution after launch (i.e., strictly speaking this is a suborbital flight), Starship will splash down in the Pacific Ocean in the Pacific Missile Range north of Hawaii.

The estimated TLE below is for launch on April 6 at 11:25 UTC:

STARSHIP                      for launch on 6 April 2023 11:25:00 UTC
1 70002U 23999A   23096.47569444  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    07
2 70002 026.3626 168.8581 0338186 110.5558 323.6714 15.99790612    02

The estimated TLE below is for launch on April 17 at 12:00 UTC:

STARSHIP                     for launch on 17 April 2023 12:00:00 UTC
1 70000U 23999A   23107.50000000  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    00
2 70000 026.3800 188.2482 0141857 110.7597 322.5585 16.48799354    03

If the launch actually is on another date/time, you can adjust the TLE to the new date/time with my program "TLEfromProxy".

If launch is near 12:00 UTC on April 17, there are no visible passes (except for a very desolate part of the Indian Ocean). However: the reentry fireball is likely visible from Hawaii.

The window of the Navigational Warnings runs from April 6 to April 12, 11:25 to 17:10 UTC daily. April 17 to April 21, 11:25 to 17:10 UTC daily. The text of the original Navigational Warnings is below (the Warnings for April 17 are identical in geographic locations):

 

250611Z MAR 23
NAVAREA IV 372/23(11,28).
GULF OF MEXICO.
TEXAS.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   1125Z TO 1710Z DAILY 06 THRU 12 APR
   IN AREAS BOUND BY
   25-57.00N 097-12.00W, 26-02.00N 097-12.00W,
   26-06.00N 096-46.00W, 26-05.00N 095-44.00W,
   25-57.00N 093-13.00W, 25-43.00N 092-44.00W,
   25-33.00N 092-44.00W, 25-32.00N 093-07.00W,
   25-47.00N 095-14.00W, 25-52.00N 096-17.00W,
   25-53.00N 096-46.00W.
2. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   1255Z TO 1710Z DAILY 06 THRU 12 APR
   IN AREAS BOUND BY
   25-57.00N 097-12.00W, 26-02.00N 097-12.00W,
   26-03.00N 097-07.00W, 26-07.00N 096-59.00W,
   26-10.00N 096-49.00W, 26-32.00N 096-25.00W,
   26-42.00N 095-34.00W, 26-42.00N 092-53.00W,
   26-08.00N 091-05.00W, 25-32.00N 090-24.00W,
   24-37.00N 084-52.00W, 24-30.00N 084-52.00W,
   25-09.00N 090-30.00W, 24-55.00N 091-06.00W,
   25-09.00N 092-53.00W, 25-14.00N 093-53.00W,
   24-58.00N 094-40.00W, 25-12.00N 096-10.00W,
   25-54.00N 097-04.00W
2.CANCEL THIS MSG 121810Z APR 23.//

 

291338Z MAR 23
NAVAREA XII 176/23(GEN).
NORTH PACIFIC.
HAWAII TO MARSHALL ISLANDS.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   1125Z TO 1850Z DAILY 06 THRU 12 APR
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   23-49.00N 157-42.00W, 23-30.00N 157-37.00W,
   23-40.00N 156-57.00W, 23-58.00N 157-03.00W.
2. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   1255Z TO 1850Z DAILY 06 THRU 12 APR
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   22-09.00N 167-02.00W, 19-50.00N 174-26.00W,
   18-19.00N 179-59.90W, 15-00.00N 173-24.00E,
   11-44.00N 167-39.00E, 11-18.00N 167-54.00E,
   13-44.00N 174-11.00E, 16-08.00N 179-30.00W,
   18-10.00N 173-45.00W, 20-13.00N 167-33.00W,
   21-52.00N 162-27.00W, 22-26.00N 160-32.00W,
   23-04.00N 157-57.00W, 23-36.00N 155-42.00W,
   24-05.00N 154-01.00W, 24-24.00N 153-16.00W,
   24-43.00N 152-44.00W, 24-49.00N 152-48.00W,
   24-41.00N 154-58.00W, 24-08.00N 158-18.00W,
   23-21.00N 162-33.00W.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 121950Z APR 23.//

Inaugural launches tend to slip, so it is well possible that the launch evetually will postpone to after April 12. But you never know! 

EDIT: and this happened. launch currently slaterd for April 17, see edarloier in this several times updated blogpost.

The other subliminal message in Kim Jong Un's missile test map

image: KCNA

The image above (from North Korea's KCNA) shows the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and a map. It was likely taken on the day of the 29 August missile test that shot a Hwasong-12 MRBM over Japan, into the Pacific Ocean. I analyzed this map and what it shows in detail in my previous post, showing that the trajectory which seems to be sketched on the map deviates from the real missile flight path.

But there is more to this map, it turns out after further analysis. There are not one, but two subliminal messages contained in this map.

The first subliminal message, already discussed at the end of my previous post, is that it depicts a 3300 km trajectory (the real flight trajectory appears to have been shorter, 2700 km). This is the approximate distance to Guam.

But there is a second subliminal message. The map also contains a veiled threath to Hawaii.

click to enlarge

As can be seen in the annotated georeferenced version of the map image above (see also my previous post), the trajectory skeched on the map (white) is very close in direction to what a trajectory towards Hawaii would be.

In the map above, there are two lines representing such a trajectory targetting Hawaii:

- The green dashed line shows what a real, 7400 km range trajectory towards Pearl Harbour would be (this takes earth curvature and earth rotation into account);

- The yellow dashed line shows what the trajectory is if launched into the same azimuth as for  targetting Pearl Harbour, but with a shorter 3300 km range, as on the map in front of Kim Jong Un.

The latter yellow line obviously is very close to what is sketched on Kim Jong Un's map. In fact, I think that within the error margins of my georeferencing effort, they might well be the same.

The white line, my best effort to represent the trajectory sketched on the map, would be a missile launched into azimuth ~77.25 degrees. The dashed yellow and green lines, are both for missiles fired into azimuth ~76.9 degrees. 76.9 and 77.25 degrees are very close, a difference of only ~0.35 degrees.

To clarify further what the map depicts: the reason that, even though the launch azimuth is the same, the green and yellow lines do not overlap is because of earth rotation and earth curvature. Firing a missile into the same azimuth (~76.9 degrees) from Pyongyang Sunan, yields a slightly more southern trajectory if the range of the missile is ~3300 km (as on Kim Jong Un's map) instead of ~7400 km (the distance to Pearl Harbour). This is because a flight to Pearl Harbour takes longer in time, and the earth surface is meanwhile rotating under the flight path.

So the trajectory sketched on the map contains two subliminal messages: the length (~3300 km) is roughly the distance to Guam. The launch direction is the launch direction towards Pearl Harbour. Two veiled threaths in one. No wonder Kim Jong Un smiles so exuberantly: "Riddle this, you Imperialist agressor Puppets!".

I firmly believe that the North Korean propaganda machine deliberately includes these images into what it makes public. When they show a map or monitor with a trajectory, however oblique and vague, it is not unintentional but (I firmly believe) intentional.

(this post is a follow-on to my earlier analysis here)