Trump’s European allies think history is turning in their direction


Populist nationalists on both sides of the Atlantic share common ideas. But there are tensions just beneath the surface. 6park.com
尽管许多共同主题会让特朗普政府与欧洲的民粹/民族主义势力找到共同语言，但他们之间的联盟到头来可能不堪一击。



For Europe’s nationalists and populists, the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House feels like the arrival of the US cavalry over the horizon. 6park.com
对欧洲的民族主义者和民粹主义者来说，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)即将重返白宫，感觉就像美国的骑兵已经出现在地平线上。 6park.com
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Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister, has been accused of undermining his country’s democracy by the European Commission and the Biden administration. He hailed Trump’s victory as a sign that: “History has accelerated . . . The world is going to change.” In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders, the leader of the Freedom party, rejoiced that: “Patriots are winning elections all over the world.” In Russia, Alexander Dugin, a pro-Putin ideologue exulted that: “We have won . . . Globalists have lost their final combat.” 6park.com
曾受到欧盟委员会(European Commission)和拜登政府批评、被指破坏本国民主制度的匈牙利总理欧尔班•维克托(Viktor Orbán)，称赞特朗普胜选是一个信号，说明：“历史在加速……世界将会改变。”在荷兰，自由党(PVV)领导人海尔特•维尔德斯(Geert Wilders)欢呼道：“爱国者正在世界各地赢得选举。”在俄罗斯，亲普京的理论家亚历山大•杜金(Alexander Dugin)欢欣鼓舞地表示：“我们赢了……全球主义者输掉了最后的战斗。” 6park.com
Political parties that broadly welcome Trump’s victory are already in powerful positions across Europe. In Austria and the Netherlands, nationalist populists won the largest share of the vote in recent elections. The Alternative for Germany is second in the polls, with a general election looming. In France, the Rassemblement National is getting nearer to national power. Reform in Britain, Law and Justice in Poland and Vox in Spain will all feel empowered by Trump’s victory. 6park.com
总体上欢迎特朗普胜选的政党已经在整个欧洲占据了强大地位。在奥地利和荷兰，民族/民粹主义者在近期的选举中赢得了最大份额的选票。德国临近大选之际，德国选择党(AfD)在民调中排名第二。在法国，国民联盟(RN)正在接近掌权。英国的改革党(Reform)、波兰的法律与公正党(Law and Justice)和西班牙的呼声党(Vox)都将受到特朗普胜选的鼓舞。 6park.com
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There are strong ideological affinities between Trump’s Maga movement and the European populists. They are all anti-migration, anti-woke and anti-“globalist”. They are also often sympathetic to Russia and fiercely supportive of Israel. And they are frequently attracted to the same conspiracy theories — about vaccinations or George Soros or the “great replacement” of indigenous populations by brown migrants. 6park.com
特朗普的“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)运动与欧洲民粹主义者在意识形态上有着强烈的亲缘性。他们都反对移民、反对“觉醒”(woke)文化和反对“全球主义”。他们也常常同情俄罗斯，并坚决支持以色列。他们经常被同样的阴谋论——关于疫苗接种、乔治•索罗斯(George Soros)，或“大取代”，即西方的白人原住民被有色人种移民取代——所吸引。 6park.com
    6park.com
If the Trump administration proceeds with its plan for the mass deportation of illegal migrants, there will be loud demands for similar measures in Europe. Herbert Kickl, the leader of the Austrian Freedom party, has spoken in favour of “remigration”, even for Austrian citizens, if they fail to respect the country’s values. 6park.com
如果特朗普政府推进其大规模驱逐非法移民的计划，欧洲将出现采取类似措施的响亮呼声。极右翼的奥地利自由党(FPÖ)的领导人赫伯特•基克尔(Herbert Kickl)已放话称，如果有人——即便是奥地利公民也不例外——不尊重该国的价值观，就应该“重新移民”。 6park.com
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Hostility to “woke” ideas is another common theme. Some of the Trump campaign’s most effective ads targeted the transgender issue. (“Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you.”) Orbán long ago shut down gender studies in Hungarian universities. Last year, Vladimir Putin signed a law banning gender changes in Russia. 6park.com
对“觉醒”理念的敌意是另一个共同主题。特朗普竞选团队一些最有效的广告瞄准跨性别问题。（“卡玛拉支持他们（指使用they/them做代词的跨性别者）。特朗普总统支持你。”）欧尔班早就叫停了匈牙利各大学的性别研究。去年，弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)签署了禁止在俄罗斯改变性别的法律。 6park.com
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The belief that Putin is a strong leader and a defender of traditional values means that many on the populist right have sympathy for the Russian president. Orbán praised Trump’s victory as an advance for those advocating peace in Europe. But the demand for an end to the war in Ukraine often shades into outright admiration for Putin and hostility to Kyiv. Media host Tucker Carlson, now an influential adviser to Trump, has conducted sympathetic interviews with both Putin and Orbán. 6park.com
相信普京是一位捍卫传统价值观的强势领袖意味着，许多民粹主义右翼人士同情这位俄罗斯总统。欧尔班称赞特朗普胜选标志着欧洲和平的倡导者取得进展。但是，要求结束乌克兰战争的呼声往往演变成对普京的彻底钦佩和对基辅方面的敌意。媒体主持人塔克•卡尔森(Tucker Carlson)如今是特朗普有影响力的顾问，他对普京和欧尔班都进行过持支持态度的采访。 6park.com
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For the European far right, hostility to Muslims now easily surpasses their more traditional hostility to Jews. Wilders calls Israel the west’s “first line of defence”. After attacks against Israeli football supporters in Amsterdam last week, he called the assailants “multicultural scum”. 6park.com
对欧洲的极右翼来说，对穆斯林的敌意现在很容易压倒他们对犹太人的传统敌意。维尔德斯称以色列是西方的“第一道防线”。在上周阿姆斯特丹发生针对以色列足球迷的袭击事件后，他称袭击者为“多元文化人渣”。 6park.com
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Support for Israel is surprisingly easy to combine with antisemitism. The ethno-nationalism of Netanyahu’s Israel is very much in tune with Orbán’s thinking. But the latter also used antisemitic tropes in his campaign against Soros — a “globalist” Jew who supports minority rights. Trump gives full-throated support for Israel yet flirts with antisemites such as Nick Fuentes. 6park.com
与此同时，对以色列的支持也能与反犹太主义共存，其容易程度出人意料。内塔尼亚胡领导的以色列的族裔民族主义(ethno-nationalism)与欧尔班的理念非常合拍。但后者在反对索罗斯的宣传运动中也含沙射影地祭出反犹太口号，称索罗斯是一位支持少数族裔权利的“全球主义”犹太人。特朗普全力支持以色列，却也与尼克•富恩特斯(Nick Fuentes)等反犹太主义者勾勾搭搭。 6park.com
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But while there are many common themes that will unite the Trump administration with populist nationalist forces in Europe, the alliance could prove quite fragile. 6park.com
然而，尽管有许多共同的主题将会让特朗普政府与欧洲的民粹/民族主义势力找到共同语言，这种联盟可能被证明是脆弱的。 6park.com
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Trump’s “America first” nationalism is likely to clash fairly quickly with the populist agenda in Europe. Catherine Fieschi, an expert on European populism, points out that Trump’s demands that Europe should open its doors to US agricultural products — such as hormone-fed beef or chlorine-washed chicken — will go down very badly with farmers there. It will also play into the strong streak of anti-Americanism that has always characterised the far right in both France and Germany. If Trump goes ahead with threatened 10-20 per cent tariffs on all imports, the whole of Europe will be hit. 6park.com
特朗普的“美国优先”民族主义很可能很快就会与欧洲的民粹主义议程发生冲突。欧洲民粹主义专家凯瑟琳•菲耶斯基(Catherine Fieschi)指出，特朗普要求欧洲向美国农产品敞开大门——包括用激素喂养的牛肉或“氯洗鸡”——这将遭到欧洲农民的强烈反对。这也将激起法国和德国极右翼一贯的强烈反美情绪。如果特朗普真的兑现对所有进口商品征收10%至20%关税的威胁，整个欧洲都将受到打击。 6park.com
    6park.com
Trump’s desire to force a peace deal on Ukraine could alienate some European populists. Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s prime minister, leads a party with its roots in the far right and is in sympathy with Trump’s “war on woke”. But she is also a strong supporter of Ukraine. 6park.com
特朗普希望迫使乌克兰达成和平协议，可能会得罪一部分欧洲民粹主义者。意大利总理焦尔吉娅•梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)领导的政党发端于极右翼。她同情特朗普的“对‘觉醒’宣战”，但她也是乌克兰的坚定支持者。 6park.com
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Even Orbán could run into difficulties. He is simultaneously wooing Trump and positioning himself as China’s best friend inside the EU. He recently hosted Xi Jinping in Budapest. Sooner or later, the Trump White House will notice this inconsistency. Nonetheless, it is a remarkable achievement for Hungary’s leader to have won such high status in the Trump movement. 6park.com
即使是欧尔班也可能遇到困难。他一边在拉拢特朗普，一边将自己定位为中国在欧盟内部最好的朋友。他最近作为东道主，接待了到访布达佩斯的习近平。特朗普政府迟早会注意到这种不一致。不过，匈牙利领导人在特朗普运动中获得如此高的地位确实是一项了不起的成就。 6park.com
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Orbán believes history is now on his side. However, Hungary does not have a good record of allying itself with history’s winners. When the country joined the EU, a gloomy Budapest academic told me that the European project was doomed. “Everything we join eventually collapses,” he lamented — pointing to the Austro-Hungarian empire, the Axis alliance in the second world war and the Soviet bloc. Perhaps the curse of Budapest will eventually come for Trump as well. 6park.com
欧尔班认为历史现在站在他这一边。然而，匈牙利在与历史的赢家结盟方面并没有良好的记录。该国加入欧盟时，布达佩斯一位悲观的学者告诉我，“欧洲项目”注定失败。“我国加入的一切最终都会崩溃，”他哀叹道；他指的是奥匈帝国、二战中的轴心国联盟和苏联集团。也许“布达佩斯诅咒”最终也会降临到特朗普头上。