| 送交者: icemessenger[♂☆★★★SuperMod★★★☆♂] 于 2024-11-11 20:54 已读 2450 次 1 赞 | icemessenger的个人频道 |
Time is running out for the world to meet climate targets 当危险还远在地平线，人类无法提前做出防范，这种倾向正在阻碍我们在当下采取必要的行动。
Human inability to act in advance of distant perils is preventing necessary action now. 6park.com
世界并没有走在能够将气温较工业化前的上升幅度控制在1.5度以内的道路上。然而，它朝着全球气候将出现不可逆变化的方向前进并不意味着世界无法取得任何进展。相反，情况已经大有改善。然而还不够。 6park.com 6park.comThe question to be addressed at the COP29 climate conference in Baku this month is how to change this unhappy trajectory. 6park.com本月在巴库举行的联合国第29届气候变化大会(COP29)将要解决的问题是，如何改变这种不如人意的轨迹？ 6park.com“The last decade has seen the share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix gradually come down from 82 per cent in 2013 to 80 per cent in 2023,” says the International Energy Agency in its World Energy Outlook 2024 report. 6park.com“过去10年，化石燃料在全球能源结构中的占比从2013年的82%逐步下降至2023年的80%，”国际能源署(IEA)在2024年度《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)报告中写道。 6park.com 6park.com“Demand for energy has increased by 15 per cent over this period and 40 per cent of this growth has been met by clean energy.” 6park.com“同期全球能源需求增加15%，40%的增长来自清洁能源。” 6park.comIn sum, demand for fossil fuels has continued to expand and its share in supply has barely fallen; we have been running fast to stand still. Will this change quickly enough in future? No. 6park.com总的来说，化石燃料需求还在继续增长，它在能源供应中的占比几乎没有下降；我们一直以来跑得太快，以至于现在无法站定。这种状况在将来会发生足够快的变化吗？不会。 6park.com 6park.comYes, we have already passed peak coal and are on track to pass peak oil and gas by 2030, according to the IEA. But, under current policies, in the agency’s “stated policies” scenario, known as Steps, fossil fuels would still generate more than half of all energy in 2050. 6park.com没错，根据IEA，我们在煤炭方面已经达峰，并且到2030年有望实现石油和天然气达峰。但是，按照现行政策，也就是在IEA的“既定政策情景”(STEPS: Stated Policies Scenario)下，到2050年化石燃料在全球能源结构中的占比仍将超过一半。 6park.com 6park.comWe would do far better if policymakers met their commitments, in the “announced pledges” scenario, or APS. But, even then, global temperatures would rise by some 1.7C by the end of the century. To keep below the 1.5C ceiling, “with a 50 per cent probability”, faster change is required, in what the IEA calls a “net zero emissions by 2050” scenario (NZE). 6park.com如果政策制定者能够履行他们的承诺，落实“已宣布的气候承诺方案”(APS)情景，结果会好得多。但是，即使在那种情况下，到本世纪末全球气温也将上升1.7度左右。要使升温幅度“有50%几率”保持在1.5度以内，就需要让变化来得快一点，这就是IEA所称的到2050年实现“净零排放”(NZE)情景。 6park.com 6park.comTo understand the prospects for achieving the NZE scenario, we need to look at the interactions between technology, economics and politics. 6park.com要理解实现净零排放的前景，我们需要看看技术、经济与政治相互之间的作用。 6park.com 6park.comTechnology has made big advances, especially in the supply of relatively cheap electricity with renewables. The world owes a great deal to China, for its huge investment in supply, especially of solar panels, which have declined greatly in price. China has made clean energy much cheaper. Significant progress has also been made in wind technologies and the cost of batteries. 6park.com技术已经取得巨大进步，尤其是在相对廉价的可再生能源电力的供应方面。在这一点上，世界在很大程度上要归功于中国，因为中国在可再生能源电力的供应上做出了巨大投资，尤其是在太阳能面板领域，这种产品的价格已经大幅下降。中国让清洁能源变得便宜了很多。此外，在风力技术和降低电池成本方面也已经取得了巨大进展。 6park.com 6park.comAdair Turner, chair of the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) coalition of experts, told the Financial Times in July: “If you asked whether we will get to something close to a zero-carbon economy by 2060 or 2070, I think it is inevitable that we will.” 6park.com由专家组成的能源转型委员会(Energy Transitions Commission)的主席阿代尔•特纳(Adair Turner)在7月份告诉英国《金融时报》：“如果你问，到2060年或2070年我们是否能达到一种接近于零碳经济的状态，我认为那是势在必行的。” 6park.comBut, he added, “the difficulty is that, unless we move faster, we will get there too late”. 6park.com但是，他补充说，“难点是，除非我们加快行动，否则我们达到目标时就会太晚了。” 6park.comThus, the combination of human ingenuity with heavy investment has transformed our ability to move to a clean energy economy. There are problems with intermittency, but advances in storage technologies make that look increasingly manageable. Moreover, this new economy will be better in many ways than the one we have today, not least via huge reductions in local pollution and increased energy independence. 6park.com因此，人类创造力和巨大投资的结合改变了我们转向清洁能源经济的能力。可再生能源存在间歇性的问题，但是储能技术的进步使这个问题显得越来越可控。而且，这种新经济在很多方面都将胜于当前我们所处的经济，尤其是当地的污染水平将显着减少，而能源独立性增强。 6park.com 6park.comNow, consider the economics. Here, too, the balance is in favour of accelerated action. A recent paper from researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research found that “the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19 per cent” by 2050, with a likely range of 11-29 per cent, given uncertainty, relative to what would have happened without climate change (the word “committed” here describes the outcome of past emissions and plausible future scenarios). 6park.com现在来看看经济方面。在这方面，权衡起来也是加快行动更有利。波茨坦气候影响研究所(Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)的研究人员在最近发表的一篇论文中指出，考虑到不确定性，相对于没有发生气候变化的情况，到2050年“世界经济保证会落得收入减少19%”，这种可能性在11%至29%之间（这里的“保证”一词用来描述过去排放的结果以及有可能出现的未来情景）。 6park.com 6park.comNot investing in insurance against such outcomes would be economically irrational. But upfront costs of the investment and disruption are heavy. 6park.com不在防范这种结果上做出投资从经济角度来说是不理性的。但这种投资的前期成本及其造成的干扰都是沉重的。 6park.com 6park.comThe IEA says investment in clean energy supply needs roughly to double between now and 2035 in high-income countries and China for the net zero emissions scenario to be within reach. This is big, but feasible. But, in developing countries, other than China, investment must rise to seven times current levels, which is far less feasible. 6park.comIEA表示，要使净零排放情景有可能实现，从现在起到2035年，高收入国家和中国在清洁能源供应上的投资大约需要翻一番。这个数额巨大，但有可行性。但是在除中国以外的发展中国家，投资必须增加到当前水平的7倍，相比起来可行性就小多了。 6park.com 6park.comThe great obstacle to such an increase in investments in the latter is the cost of financing. Many emerging and developing countries are in desperate need of clean, cheap and reliable energy. Yet, many of their governments are already debt-encumbered and the cost of financing such projects in these countries is prohibitively high. 6park.com后者以这种力度增加投资面临的巨大障碍是融资成本。许多新兴及发展中国家迫切需要清洁、廉价且可靠的能源。然而，其中许多国家的政府已经背负着沉重债务，在这些国家为此类项目融资面临着极其高昂的成本。 6park.com 6park.comFinally, there are the politics. Many people are ideologically resistant to the idea that there could be such a huge negative environmental externality as climate change, as it would violate their faith in laissez faire economics. Others have strong interests in the fossil fuel economy, or do not want to change their established ways of life. 6park.com最后还有政治。许多人在思想上抗拒像气候变化这样巨大的负面环境外部性，因为这违背他们所信奉的“自由放任”(laissez faire)经济学。还有一些人在化石燃料经济中拥有巨大利益，或者不想改变他们既有的生活方式。 6park.com 6park.comBeyond all this, climate change is a global collective action problem. No country can solve it on its own. It requires not just co-operation, but willingness of those with the resources (who also tend to be those responsible for the bulk of past emissions) to finance and subsidise investment in the rest of the world. 6park.com除了这些，气候变化是一个需要全球集体行动的问题。没有一个国家能够独自解决这个问题。这不仅需要合作，还需要那些具备资源为世界其他地区的投资提供融资和补贴的国家（它们往往也是要为过去的大部分排放负责的国家）有意愿这么做。 6park.com 6park.comIn brief, despite the many benefits of making an accelerated energy transition, the combination of “the tragedy of the commons” with what former Bank of England governor Mark Carney calls “the tragedy of the horizon” — the human inability to act in advance of distant perils — is preventing action. The election of Donald Trump as US president will make this far harder. 6park.com简单地说，尽管加快能源转型有许多好处，但“公地的悲剧”(the tragedy of the commons)和前英国央行行长马克•卡尼(Mark Carney)所称的“地平线上的悲剧”(tragedy of the horizon)——人类面对遥远的危险不能提前有所作为 ——相结合，正在阻碍人们采取行动。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)当选美国总统将使事情难上许多。 6park.com 6park.comFor all the technological advance, we seem unlikely to make enough progress on climate in time. If so, this will be a tragic, and unnecessary, failure. 6park.com尽管在技术上有很多进步，但我们似乎不太可能及时地在气候方面取得足够的进展。如果是这样的话，这将是一场悲惨、本来没必要经历的失败。
The world is not on the path to limit the increase in temperature to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Its movement towards an irreversible change in the global climate does not mean the world has failed to make progress, however. On the contrary, there has been much improvement. Yet it is not enough. 6park.com
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