| 送交者: icemessenger[♂☆★★★SuperMod★★★☆♂] 于 2024-11-11 20:53 已读 2457 次 1 赞 | icemessenger的个人频道 |
The Trump shadow hanging over Baku 威胁要再度带领美国退出《巴黎协定》的当选总统不太可能终止联合国气候大会进程，但欧盟和中国必须准备好帮助填补美国留下的空白。
The rest of the world must fill a looming US void in climate leadership. 6park.com
每年一度的联合国气候变化大会已在阴云下在阿塞拜疆首都巴库开幕。世界上最富有的国家将再次由一位积极反对解决世界上最棘手、最攸关生死的问题之一的领导人领导。 6park.com 6park.comGlobal efforts to rein in planet-warming emissions have never proceeded as smoothly or effectively as needed, ever since they began three decades ago. But Donald Trump’s return to the White House comes at an especially fraught moment for a green energy transition that is still closer to the starting blocks than the finishing line. 6park.com控制温室气体排放的全球努力自30年前开始以来，从未像现在这样顺利或有效地推进。但唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)重返白宫适逢绿色能源转型——这一转型仍然更接近起点，而不是终点——到达一个特别令人忧心的时刻。 6park.com 6park.comAnother spate of exceptional heat means 2024 is on track to replace 2023 as the warmest year on record. The greenhouse gas emissions fuelling the heat that countries are supposed to be slashing instead grew to a record high last year, while weather extremes are battering cities across the globe with remorseless regularity. It is no time for the US, the second-biggest emitter after China, to be missing in action. 6park.com又一波异常高温意味着，2024年有望取代2023年，成为有记录以来最热的一年。各国本应大幅削减助长高温天气的温室气体排放量，然而该排放量却在去年创下历史新高，而极端天气正以无情的节奏袭击全球城市。美国作为仅次于中国的世界第二大排放国，现在绝不是退出行动的时候。 6park.com 6park.comThis time around, a Trump administration emboldened by last week’s emphatic election vote may wreak more economic harm at home than abroad, especially if the Republican party ends up controlling both chambers of Congress. During Trump’s first term in office from 2017 to 2021, China began to leap ahead of the US in electric vehicles, batteries, solar modules and other clean energy technologies. 6park.com这一次，受上周高票胜选结果鼓舞的特朗普政府，可能会对国内经济造成比对国外更大的损害，尤其是在共和党最终控制国会两院的情况下。在2017年至2021年的特朗普第一个任期内，中国在电动汽车、电池、太阳能电池组件和其他清洁能源技术方面开始超越美国。 6park.com 6park.comThe Biden administration fought back with the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, the landmark climate law funnelling billions of dollars into green industries that Trump has vowed to gut. Control of Congress may help him do this, though Republican districts have been big recipients of the act’s green largesse. Either way, his threats to end clean power projects such as offshore wind farms “on day one”, while boosting fossil fuel production, will inject uncertainty into green investment plans, and set back hopes of breaking China’s grip on the technologies of the 21st century. 6park.com拜登政府借助2022年《降低通胀法》(Inflation Reduction Act)发起反击，这部具有里程碑意义的气候法律向绿色产业注入巨资，而特朗普现在誓言要收回这类财政支持。控制国会可能帮助他做到这一点，尽管共和党选区迄今是《降低通胀法》框架下绿色慷慨的大受益者。无论如何，他的威胁（“第一天”就终结海上风电场等清洁电力项目，同时提高化石燃料产量）将给绿色投资计划带来不确定性，并使打破中国对21世纪技术掌控的希望受挫。 6park.com 6park.comIt is true the economic case for ever cheaper renewables has strengthened since Trump’s first term. The world now invests nearly twice as much in clean energy as in fossil fuels. But China dominates that investment, especially outside the US and EU, and Trump may embolden other leaders to take their feet off the pedal in a green energy race that the Inflation Reduction Act had begun to accelerate abroad. 6park.com的确，自特朗普第一个任期以来，可再生能源必须越来越便宜的经济理由已经增强。目前，世界对清洁能源的投资几乎是化石燃料的两倍。但中国主导着这些投资，尤其是在美国和欧盟以外，而特朗普可能会鼓励其他领导人在绿色能源竞赛中放慢脚步，尽管《降低通胀法》此前已开始在海外加速这一竞赛。 6park.com 6park.comAn early test of how the election result will reverberate will come in Baku. Trump’s campaign team has said he will again pull the US out of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which he announced in 2017 and formally did in late 2020, only to watch Joe Biden restore membership in early 2021. 6park.com在巴库举行的会议将是对美国大选结果将产生何种影响的一个早期测试。特朗普竞选团队已表示，他将再次带领美国退出2015年《巴黎协定》，他曾在2017年宣布退出该协定，并于2020年末正式退出，却不料乔•拜登(Joe Biden)在2021年初带领美国重新加入该协定。 6park.com 6park.comNo country followed the US out then and there is no sign of any exodus forming now, so far. But Trump advisers hope the incoming president will this time pull the US out of the Paris Agreement’s parent treaty, the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change — a harder to reverse step that would deal a much deeper blow to international collaboration. That prospect is expected to taint a central task in Baku, where envoys are due to agree a new finance goal to help poorer countries deal with a hotter climate. 6park.com当初没有一个国家跟随美国退出《巴黎协定》，这一次迄今尚未出现大批国家将会退出的迹象。但特朗普的顾问们希望，即将上任的总统这一次将让美国退出《巴黎协定》的母条约，即1992年《联合国气候变化框架公约》(UN Framework Convention on Climate Change)——这是一个更难逆转的举措，将对国际合作造成更深度的打击。这一前景预计将影响巴库会议的一项核心任务，即由各国特使商定一项新的融资目标，帮助较贫穷国家应对气候变暖。 6park.com 6park.comWealthy nations struggled to meet on time an earlier target of $100bn a year first formally agreed in 2010. Negotiating a larger goal on the eve of a potential US Paris pullout is a steep ask. Ultimately, Trump is unlikely to kill off the COP process nor bring the energy transition to a halt. But the EU and China must be ready to help fill a US void. Further delay in a climate shift that is already going at a dangerously glacial pace is something the world cannot afford. 6park.com富裕国家本已在按时实现2010年最初正式达成的每年1000亿美元的先前目标方面陷入挣扎。在美国很可能退出《巴黎协定》的前夕谈判一项更大的目标，将是一项甚至更为艰巨的任务。最终而言，特朗普不太可能终止联合国气候大会进程，也不太可能叫停能源转型。但欧盟和中国必须准备好帮助填补美国留下的空白。面对已经在以危险的冰川速度发展的气候变化，世界承受不起进一步的拖延。
The annual UN climate COP conference has begun in Azerbaijan’s capital of Baku beneath a menacing cloud. Once again, the world’s richest country will be led by a leader actively opposed to fixing one of the world’s most intractable and existential problems. 6park.com
请点这里投票，“赞”助支持！