Trump’s self-defeating pledges on the economy


The scenarios where America does best involve curbing his campaign promises. 6park.com
如果美国当选总统完全兑现诺言，他可能会搞砸美国经济。展望未来四年，最好的结果是他不能兑现他对选民做出的承诺。



Almost 80 per cent of Americans who said “the economy” was their number one priority at the exit polls in Tuesday’s US election voted for Donald Trump. That might perplex outsiders. After all, the recent performance of America’s economy is enviable: growth is solid, inflation is easing and the jobless rate is low. But national strength belies local pockets of weakness. Households have been stretched by the 20 per cent rise in price levels since January 2021. Rent and healthcare costs are harder to cover. Credit card debts are mounting. 6park.com
在上周二美国大选的投票站出口民调中称“经济”是其头号优先事项的美国人中，近80%投票给了唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)。这可能会让局外人感到困惑。毕竟，美国经济近年的表现令人艳羡：增长稳健、通胀正在缓解、失业率低。但全国层面的强劲掩盖了局部的薄弱。自2021年1月以来上涨20%的价格水平令家庭捉襟见肘。房租和医疗费用更难承受。信用卡债务日积月累。 6park.com
    6park.com
The over 70mn Americans who voted for Trump are optimistic that their fortunes will now be turned around. The stock market is rallying, too. The president-elect’s plan to cut taxes and his courting of the tech “bros” has Wall Street and Silicon Valley — twin engines of the US economy — salivating. Trump has vibes on his side. He also inherits an economy in good nick: the US Federal Reserve has embarked on its interest-rate cutting cycle and price pressures are easing. 6park.com
投票给特朗普的7000多万美国人乐观地认为，他们的命运现在将会转好。股市也在上涨。当选总统的减税计划和他对科技行业“兄弟”的拉拢，让华尔街和硅谷——美国经济的双引擎——垂涎欲滴。人气在特朗普这一边。他还继承了一个状况良好的经济：美联储(Federal Reserve)已开始降息周期，价格压力正在缓解。 6park.com
    6park.com
He could, however, jeopardise the optimism and favourable economic backdrop, depending on how much he actually follows through with his proposals. His plans emulate his first term, but on steroids. He wants to extend the tax cuts he enacted in 2017, and slash levies on business and pay. On tariffs — the “most beautiful word” in the dictionary, he says — there could be a 10 to 20 per cent bill on all imported goods, with 60 per cent for Chinese imports. The “largest deportation operation” in American history is also on the agenda. 6park.com
然而，取决于他实施其提议的程度，他可能会终结乐观情绪，搞砸有利的经济背景。他的计划模仿他在第一个任期出台的政策，但更加激进。他希望延长他在2017年实施的减税措施，并大幅削减对企业和工资的征税。关于关税——他说这是词典里“最美丽的词”——所有进口商品可能面对10%到20%的关税，而中国输美商品可能面对60%的关税。美国史上“最大规模的驱逐行动”也被提上议程。 6park.com
    6park.com
Whatever form it takes, the gist of Trump 2.0 is that inflation, borrowing costs and national debt will be higher, relative to the baseline. Tax cuts could support growth, but would also raise the deficit. Tariffs will feed through to retail prices and a lower labour supply could also nudge up price pressures. Such is the irony of voting for Trump in anger over the high cost of living. 6park.com
无论采取何种形式，特朗普2.0基本上意味着，相对于基线水平，通胀、借款成本和国家债务将会更高。减税可以支持增长，但也会增加赤字。关税将会传导至零售价格，而劳动力供应减少也可能小幅推高价格压力。这是出于对高昂生活成本的愤怒而投票给特朗普的讽刺之处。 6park.com
    6park.com
How will it pan out? In one scenario Trump keeps to all his pledges, as he said he would in his acceptance speech. If so, he will dent confidence and the economy. Full-throated tax cuts could blow out US Treasury yields and destabilise financial markets. Tampering with the Fed’s independence would worsen that. And bumper, quick-fire tariffs risk igniting a trade war, which would raise domestic prices, hurt US exporters and crunch global demand. 6park.com
结果会如何？一种情景是，特朗普兑现所有承诺，就像他在胜选演讲中所说的那样。若果真如此，他将削弱信心和经济。大力度的减税措施可能会显着推高美国国债收益率，破坏金融市场稳定。削弱美联储的独立性将使这一情景更加糟糕。而连珠炮式的高额关税可能引发贸易战，进而推高国内价格，损害美国出口商并抑制全球需求。 6park.com
    6park.com
In a second scenario, Trump’s most extreme plans might be curbed or delayed, for instance by advisers, lobbyists or other lawmakers (if the Republicans do not, in fact, take control of the House of Representatives). This would be better for animal spirits and less harmful to the economy. In this scenario, Trump’s less radical tax and regulatory cuts prop up investors, while the impact of import tariffs are less intense, as businesses have time to enact contingencies or because they are diluted. Wall Street is currently pricing in this more restrained forecast. 6park.com
第二种情景是，特朗普的最极端计划可能会受到顾问、游说者或立法者（如果共和党最终未能控制众议院）的遏制或延后。这对“动物精神”更有利，对经济的危害也较小。在这种情景下，特朗普不那么激进的减税和监管松绑措施为投资者“托盘”，而进口关税的冲击不那么强烈——要么因为企业有时间采取应急行动，要么因为这些关税被稀释了。华尔街正在定价中计入这种更为克制的预测。 6park.com
    6park.com
Then there is the most sanguine script. Here, Trump’s tariff plans turn out to be mostly a negotiating device. A transactional approach might see import duties imposed more selectively. His administration may also better target and prioritise his tax-cutting and red tape-slashing agenda towards the lower and middle class and investment. This might mean vibes and economic fundamentals are intact, or even stronger, come 2028. 6park.com
最后是最令人乐观的剧本。在这一情景中，特朗普的关税计划到头来主要是一种谈判手段。他把什么事情都当生意谈的风格，可能意味着更有选择性地加征进口关税。他领导的美国行政当局也可能更好地区分轻重缓急，将其减税和监管松绑议程瞄准中下阶层和投资。这可能意味着到2028年，人气和经济基本面因素将得到保持，甚至更加强劲。 6park.com
    6park.com
In all scenarios, Trump’s impulsive nature will mean uncertainty — and market volatility — will be a fixture. That will act as a drag on economic growth. But it is a sign of just how topsy-turvy US politics have become that the rosiest outlook may be the one in which the president-elect fails to enact what he promised voters. 6park.com
在上述所有情景下，特朗普的冲动特性都意味着不确定性——市场波动将成为“标配”。这将拖累经济增长。但这是一个表明美国政治已经变得多么错乱的迹象：最美好的前景可能是当选总统未能兑现他对选民做出的承诺。