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Trump and the lure of strongman leadership 幻想破灭的美国选民寄希望于一位自封的强人领袖。未来四年，他们将知道特朗普到底是他们祈祷的答案，还是活生生的噩梦。
The president-elect has fundamentally shifted the norms and ideology of American politics. 6park.com
唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)将作为一位真正具有历史意义的总统载入史册。这不是一个道德评判，而只是承认他在彻底重塑美国政治方面取得的重大成就。 6park.com 6park.comLike Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan, Trump has not merely won re-election. He has also brought about fundamental shifts in policy, ideology and the political landscape. Unfortunately, he has also brought about a profound change in political norms, by embracing conspiracy theories and refusing to accept that he lost the 2020 presidential election. 6park.com就像富兰克林•罗斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)或罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)一样，特朗普不仅赢得第二个任期，还带来了政策、意识形态和政治格局上的根本转变。不幸的是，拥抱阴谋论并拒绝接受自己在2020年败选意味着，他还带来了政治规范上的深远变化。 6park.com 6park.comThe accusation that Trump is a threat to democracy turned out not to be the clinching argument that the Democrats imagined. That could be because Americans simply did not buy the argument. But there is also evidence that there is an appetite for strongman leadership in the US. 6park.com有关特朗普对民主制度构成威胁的指控，到头来并没有成为民主党人想象中的决定性论点。这也许是因为美国人对这个论点根本不买账。但也有证据表明，相当多的美国人恰恰盼着出现一位强人领袖。 6park.com 6park.comA Pew poll taken earlier this year showed that 32 per cent of Americans believe it would be a good idea to have a strong leader who can govern without being constrained by the courts or legislature. Another poll, taken last year, found 38 per cent of Americans and 48 per cent of Republicans thought the country needed a leader who is willing to “break some rules if that’s what it takes to set things right”. 6park.com皮尤研究中心(Pew)今年早些时候进行的一项民调显示，32%的美国人认为，拥有一位可以在不受法院或立法机构约束的情况下治国理政的强人领袖是一个好主意。去年进行的另一项民调发现，38%的美国人和48%的共和党人认为，美国需要一位愿意“打破一些规则——如果那是拨乱反正所必需的”的领导人。 6park.com 6park.comThe political instincts that told Trump many Americans might want a strongman leader also emboldened him to break with decades of Republican and Reaganite orthodoxy on a range of issues — from free trade to the defence of democracy around the world. Until Trump came on the scene, it was conventional wisdom that protectionism was an electoral liability — championed only by maverick losers such as Pat Buchanan. Trump, who says tariff is his favourite word, demonstrated that Americans were ready to embrace protectionist policies. The proof of his success in reversing decades of orthodoxy is that the Biden administration did not scrap Trump’s tariffs. 6park.com政治直觉使特朗普领悟到许多美国人可能想要一位强人领袖，这也让他敢于在一系列议题上——从自由贸易到捍卫世界各地的民主制度——告别共和党和里根主义者坚持了几十年的正统观念。在特朗普登上政治舞台之前，各方普遍认为保护主义是一项选举负担——只有帕特•布坎南(Pat Buchanan)之类的特立独行的输家才会倡导。自称“关税”(tariff)是他最喜欢的英文词的特朗普则证明，美国人已准备好拥抱保护主义政策。他成功扭转数十年正统观念的证据是，拜登政府并没有废除他出台的关税。 6park.com 6park.comTrump has also broken with the neoconservatives who worshipped the memory of Reagan and championed the promotion of democracy around the world. After decades of war in Afghanistan and Iraq this, too, proved to be a shrewd political call. Academic research has shown that parts of the country where military casualties were higher than average were significantly more likely to back Trump. 6park.com特朗普还与崇拜里根记忆、倡导在世界各地推广民主的新保守主义者决裂。美国在阿富汗和伊拉克打了几十年战争之后，这被证明是一个精明的政治判断。学术研究表明，在美国国内，军人伤亡高于平均水平的地区明显更有可能支持特朗普。 6park.com 6park.comDuring the Bush years, it was conventional wisdom that Republicans would lose Hispanic voters if they sounded too hostile to immigration. Trump has demonstrated that this is not true. 6park.com布什年代的普遍观点是，如果共和党人在移民问题上的表态过于强硬，他们将会失去西语裔选民的支持。特朗普则证明事实并非如此。 6park.com 6park.comTrump’s ideology is, in some respects, Reaganism in reverse. Whereas Reagan argued for free trade and confrontation with the Soviet Union, Trump stands for protectionism and accommodation with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Reagan’s sunny optimism about the US contrasts with Trump’s bleak pessimism about US decline. And whereas Reagan was correct and courteous in his manners; Trump is vulgar and threatening. 6park.com在某些方面，特朗普的意识形态是里根主义的反面。里根当年主张自由贸易和与苏联对抗，而特朗普则主张保护主义、主张与弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)领导的俄罗斯和解。里根对美国的乐观态度与特朗普对美国走下坡路的悲观态度形成反差。里根举止得体、彬彬有礼，而特朗普粗俗而咄咄逼人。 6park.com 6park.comThe one Reaganite policy that Trump has consistently championed is a commitment to low taxes and deregulation. Perhaps not coincidentally, this is the element of Reaganism that is most highly prized by the tech and finance grandees who fund political campaigns. 6park.com特朗普始终倡导的一项里根主义政策是承诺降低税收和放松管制。也许并非巧合的是，这也是为政治竞选活动慷慨出资的科技和金融大亨们最看重的里根主义元素。 6park.com 6park.comFrom his first declaration as a candidate in 2015, Trump defied the norms of political behaviour in ways that led to frequent erroneous predictions that his political career was doomed. He ridiculed and bullied fellow Republicans, mocked the disabled, made gross comments about women and attempted to overturn the result of a presidential election. But none of it was enough to finish him off. In fact, Trump’s taboo-smashing comments may have worked in his favour. 6park.com自2015年首次宣布参选以来，特朗普就以各种方式违背政治行为规范，这导致外界经常错误地预测他的政治生涯注定失败。他嘲笑和霸凌共和党同僚，模仿嘲弄残疾人，对女性发表粗俗评论，并试图推翻总统大选的结果。但这些都不足以终结他的政治生涯。事实上，特朗普打破禁忌的言论可能帮到了他。 6park.com 6park.comOver the past eight years, Trump has taken over the Grand Old Party — as the Republicans like to style themselves — and turned it into his personal instrument. Those Republicans who could not stomach his policies or his style — people such as Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan and Liz Cheney — have left politics or been marginalised. Other Republicans who once opposed him have apologised. JD Vance, who will be Trump’s vice-president, once tweeted, “Fellow Christians, everyone is watching us when we apologise for this man. Lord help us.” He has since apologised — not to the Lord but to Trump. 6park.com过去八年里，特朗普接管了“老大党”(Grand Old Party)——共和党人喜欢这样称呼他们的党——将该党变成他的个人工具。受不了他的政策或风格的共和党人——比如米特•罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)、保罗•瑞安(Paul Ryan)和利兹•切尼(Liz Cheney)——已经离开政坛或被边缘化。其他曾经反对他的共和党人则已向他道歉。当选副总统的J•D•万斯(JD Vance)曾在Twitter上写道：“基督教徒们，当我们为这个人道歉时，每个人都在看着我们。愿上帝帮助我们。”在那之后他已道歉——不是向上帝道歉，而是向特朗普道歉。 6park.com 6park.comTrump’s victory over Kamala Harris will be taken as proof that his Maga agenda has been embraced not just by the Republican party but by the US as a whole. His followers are likely to demand rapid progress on the full slate of Maga policies — whether it is mass deportation of illegal immigrants, tax cuts or the purging of the “deep state”. 6park.com特朗普击败卡玛拉•哈里斯(Kamala Harris)将被视为证据，证明他的“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)议程不仅得到共和党的支持，而且得到整个美国的认可。他的追随者很可能会要求迅速落实MAGA政策的全部内容——无论是大规模驱逐非法移民、减税，还是清除“深层政府”。 6park.com 6park.comYet while Trump’s political success is undeniable, it would be a mistake to over-interpret his mandate. There is currently a strong mood of anti-incumbency across the west as voters struggle with inflation, immigration and cultural change. That anti-incumbency mood has seen the Conservative party swept out of power in Britain, Emmanuel Macron lose his majority in France and now the collapse of the German government, This is also the third successive US presidential election in which the incumbent party has lost the vote. 6park.com然而，尽管特朗普的政治成功不可否认，但过度解读他获得的民意授权将是一个错误。当前，随着选民对通胀、移民和文化变革感到不满，西方各国选民要求“换人”的情绪普遍强烈。这种情绪已经导致英国保守党下台，法国的埃马纽埃尔•马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)失去议会多数席位，而德国执政联盟现在也垮台了。在美国，特朗普胜选标志着现任执政党连续第三次在总统大选中失利。 6park.com 6park.comDisillusioned American voters have now put their faith in a self-styled strongman leader. Over the next four years, they will discover whether Trump is the answer to their prayers — or a living nightmare. 6park.com幻想破灭的美国选民现在寄希望于一位自封的强人领袖。在接下来四年里，他们将知道特朗普到底是他们祈祷的答案，还是一场活生生的噩梦。
Donald Trump will go down in history as a truly historic president. That is not a moral judgment. It is simply an acknowledgment of the scale of his achievement in completely remaking American politics. 6park.com
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